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The World This Week – 24th July 2020 to 31st July 2020
Indian Equity Summary- · SØ&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell by 1.4% and 1% respectively on a WoW basis, and the six-week positive trend in Indian equities came to a pause as negative feelings prevailed among market participants, on the back of rising Covid-19 cases as well as a decline in US GDP at an annualized rate of 32.9% in 2Q 2020. Healthcare and IT were the best-performing sectors, while oil & gas and banks were the worst-performing ones on a weekly basis. · Going forward, global factors like development on the US -China relationship front , and domestic factors like the outcome of the RBI MPCØ meeting ( we expect a pause in Repo rate cut in the August RBI MPC meeting) and the monsoon trajectory ; will continue to dictate the trend of the domestic equity market. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 10700-11,100 in the near term. Indian Debt Market- · Government bond prices fell marginally as the yield of the 10-year benchmark 5.79% 2030 paper settled at 5.84% on July 31 as against 5.82% onØ July 24 . · India’s fiscal deficit during the first quarter of this fiscal widened to Rs 6.62 lakh crore or 83.2% of the budget estimates, mainly on account of poorØ tax collections due to the lockdown; fiscal deficit during the corresponding period of last year was 61.4% of the budget estimates. · RBI introduced new 5.77% GS 2030 last week.Ø · We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade between 5.80-6.05% in near term.Ø Domestic News · Deposit growth in the banking system continued to grow at 10.1 percent on a year-on-year basis, even though banks have reduced their depositØ rates sharply in the absence of credit growth and liquidity induced by RBI due to Covid-19. · India’s factory slump deepened in July as renewed lockdown measures to contain surging coronavirus cases weighed on demand and output,Ø raising the chances of a sharper economic contraction, a private business survey showed on Monday. · Indian power plants used the most gas in at least 3-1/2 years in the June quarter, as operators along the west coast snapped up cheap liquefiedØ natural gas (LNG) imports that have become competitive against coal, government data showed. International News · US real gross domestic product plummeted at a record annual rate of 32.9% in the second quarter of 2020 following a 5% decline in the firstØ quarter · U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated to its highest level in nearly 1-1/2 years in July as orders increased despite a resurgence in new COVID-Ø 19 infections · Tens of millions of people in and around the Philippine capital will go back to a strict lockdown from Tuesday, threatening incomes and hopesØ for reviving a once dynamic economy as authorities take drastic measures to halt surging virus cases. Link -http://www.karvywealth.com/data/sites/1/skins/karvywealth/Download_media_report.aspx?FileName=C008C18F-7DA4-4A92-A64F-50DE73ECD819|5248508 %֩���:
Oil prices rose to their highest in more than week. HDFC Bank, TCS and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the top losers. https://preview.redd.it/7ivk0zui7vb41.jpg?width=666&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0dcaade2c9d64df58b804c7524d413b56815ddc5 Indian markets gave up most of their early gains after setting new highs in early trade. The Nifty hit 12,400 level for the first time when it rose 78 points to 12,430 at day’s high. The Sensex rose over 300 points when touched 42,273 in early trade. However, Sensex and Nifty later pared most of their early gains to turn flat as a surge in oil prices hurt the sentiment. HDFC Bank, TCS and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the top losers, down between 0.5% and 1%. Crude has again raised its ugly head today with fresh issues cropping up in Iraq and Libya. The Nifty is discounting the solid results of RIL and other Nifty constituents, HDFC Securities said in a note. Reliance Industries reported a 13.5% rise in quarterly net profit, led by strong performance of its consumer-facing businesses and robust refining margin. HDFC Bank reported a 32.8% growth in net profit year-on-year to Rs. 7,416.5 crore for the third quarter ended December 31 driven by interest and non-interest income. Oil prices rose more than 1% today on supply concerns after exports from Libya, which has been riven by fighting between rival factions since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising, were blocked after a pipeline was shut down by armed forces. And in Iraq, which is OPEC’s second biggest producer, a strike at a key oil field hit output. Siddhartha Khemka, head of retail research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, says Nifty has major support at 12150 levels. On the flipside, resistance is placed in the zone of 12,450-12,500, he added. Asian markets were mostly higher today as the mood remained optimistic after the last week’s signing of China-US trade pact. China’s GDP data, which was released on Friday, also provided some reassurance to traders, indicating a growth slowdown in the world’s number two economy may have bottomed out. Watch our Stock Market Target Calls Quality, Track sheet – Click Here or Subscribe us for Stock Market Trading >>>>Stock Cash Tips
A directory prospect is a derivative, similar to a stock future, whose value is dependent on the value of the underlying, in this case, the index like the S&P CNX Nifty or BSE Sensex, and market profile trading strategies. By making a trade-in inventory bank nifty future, an investor is buying and selling the basket of stocks comprising the index, in their respective weights. Stock index futures are traded in terms of order flow trading strategies. Each treaty would be to either purchase or sell a limited value of the index. The amount of the deal would be the lot size multiplied by the index value. About Nifty futures Nifty futures are index futures where the order flow underlying is the S&P CNX Nifty index. In India, bank nifty futures trading initiated in 2000 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). For auction market theory contracts, the permitted lot size is 50, and in multiples of 50. Like additional destinies contracts, Nifty fortunes treaties also have a three-month trading progression -- the near-month, the next month and the far-month. After the expiry of the near-month contract, a replacement lease of three-month duration would be introduced on subsequent trading day. Investors can trade Nifty futures by having a margin amount in their account. This margin may be a percentage of the contract value. It's usually about 10-12 per cent. Why do you have to choose them? Hedging. In simple terms, hedging may be a strategy that helps limit losses. Exposure to stock is like exposure to an index. this is often because most stocks move in tandem to the market. Exposure to index futures helps hedge this risk — speculative gains. If you're sure about future market movements, you'll make profits through index futures. If you bullish on the market buy index futures. If bearish, you ought to sell index futures. How do they work? You enter into a Nifty derivative instrument at a specified index value. On the expiry of the agreement, the investor's profits would be the difference between the extent of the index on expiry and therefore, the level laid out in the derivative instrument at the time of purchase. Strategies to Follow: Small stock, extended index futures. There are times once you sell the capital, but there's an upside within the market, thus leading to potential lost profits. Index futures assist you in mitigating this risk. By buying index futures once you are short on the stock, you'll minimise the number of potential benefits lost: equity portfolio, quick index futures. There are times once you own a portfolio and are uncomfortable about market conditions. You'll hedge this risk by selling index futures. The concept vests on the very fact that each collection has index exposure and risks are accounted for by fluctuations within the index. Long Stock, Short Index Futures Suppose you're long 500 shares of Reliance Industries at the worth of Rs 1,000 per share; spot Nifty is at 5,000; and Nifty futures is at 5,020. To protect your Rs 5 lakh (Rs 500,000) position from a market downturn, you would like to sell 100 Nifty futures. Suppose on the expiry date; the spot/futures Nifty is at 4,750 (5 per cent fall). On closing, both the positions, you'd earn Rs 2,000. Your job in Reliance Industries would have dropped by Rs 25,000, and therefore the short Nifty would have gained Rs 27,000 [i.e., 100 x (5,020-4,750)] Short Stock, Long Index Futures Suppose you're short 400 shares of Infosys Technologies at the worth of Rs 2,500 per share; spot Nifty is at 5,000; and Nifty futures is at 5,050. To protect your Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million) position from a market upside, you would like to shop for 200 Nifty futures. If on expiry, the spot/futures Nifty is at 5,250 (5 per cent rise), on closing both positions, you lose nothing. Your job in Infosys would end in a loss Rs 50,000, and therefore the short Nifty would have gained Rs 50,000 [i.e., 200x(5,250-5000)] Hedging Portfolio Risk Suppose the spot Nifty is at 5,000 and consequently the three-month Nifty futures at 5,015. To guard a portfolio of Rs 5 lakh (Rs 500,000) from a drop by the market, you would like to sell 100 December Nifty futures. Suppose on the expiry date; the spot/futures Nifty is at 4,500 (10 per cent fall). Your hedging strategy would earn you a profit of Rs 51,500[i.e., 100x(5,015-4500)], which compensates you for the Rs 50,000 (10 per cent) fall in your portfolio. Costs Inherent With Trading Strategies: There's a reason professional traders once only employed active trading strategies. Not only does having an in-house brokerage reduce the prices related to high-frequency trading, but it also ensures better trade execution. Lower commissions and better performance are two elements that improve the profit potential of the strategies. Significant hardware and software purchases are typically required to implement these strategies successfully. additionally, to real-time market data, these costs make active trading somewhat prohibitive for the individual trader, although not altogether unachievable This is why passive and indexed strategies that take a buy-and-hold stance offer lower fees and trading costs, also as smaller taxable events within the event of selling a profitable position. Still, passive strategies cannot beat the market since they hold a broad market index. Active traders seek 'alpha', in hopes that trading profits will exceed costs and bring a successful long-term strategy. Thank you!
DAIhard: the unkillable crypto/fiat gateway. Any country, any fiat. Proudly announcing the open beta on mainnet.
Note this is an old post. Please see the re-launch post here, which went much more smoothly :)
EDIT: A critical bug has been revealed to us, so we've disabled the interface while we re-organize.
For the Solidity devs, the bug has to do with the open function, which can be called by anyone to become the initiator and recall the funds as if they created the trade. The interface is disabled on mainnet, but still works on Kovan for anyone who wants to poke around. It seems that only one user, aside from our seed trades, was vulnerable. u/adamaid_321, who found and exploited the flaw, has said he will return the funds to their original owners in a few hours. (u/adamaid_321 was professional to work with, and kind, given the situation.) Tomorrow we'll write a post-mortem, which is ironic for something that was supposed to be unkillable. Hoo boy. ORIGINAL POST:
DAIhard: the unkillable crypto/fiat gateway. Any country, any fiat. Proudly announcing the open beta on mainnet.
Here is a legitimate concern most of us are familiar with:
To enter or exit the crypto economy, we rely on exchanges, which track their users, impose limits, and are coupled to their jurisdiction. And for all we know, any day now governments could start shutting down the exchanges altogether. In light of this, can we honestly say that crypto is anonymous, limtiless, borderless, immune to regulation, and unstoppable?
To really address this concern, we need a completely decentralized fiat-to-crypto on-ramp platform: something that extends the benefits of crypto to the very act of moving between the fiat and crypto economies. But the design of such a platform is far from obvious. (Bisq comes close, but contains some crucial centralized compoments.) We believe we've found the solution. We are proud to present DAIHard, currently in open beta on mainnet (and Kovan). If you want to jump right in, we reccomend first watching Using DAIHard to buy and sell DAI (12 min), then diving in and giving it a shot with a small amount of DAI. (Feel free to try it on Kovan if mainnet is too scary at first.)
Okay, but What Is It?
DAIHard extends many of the promises of crypto (borderless, anonymous, limitless, unstoppable) into the exchange mechanism itself, allowing anyone anywhere to bypass centralized exchanges and the control they impose. More concretely, DAIHard is a platform, run on smart contracts, for forming one-off crypto/fiat exchanges with other users, in which:
The method of fiat transfer is open-ended, but agreed upon up-front (for example: bank transfer, cash handoff, transfer of online credit, or really anything the offer creator thinks up).
You and the counterparty can communicate via end-to-end encrypted chat to coordinate the fiat transfer (i.e. communicate bank account number, or describe a cash drop location).
In the last phase, the Seller can choose to burn the DAI instead of releasing it to the Buyer (but he can't get it back). This credible threat is what makes the platform reliable in the absence of centralized control or moderation. For more on this see the DAIHard Game Theory medium article (10 min read).
You Need DAI (and ETH, for gas) to Use The Tool (At Least For Now).
This is the biggest drawback of the platform in its current state: if you want to buy DAI, you need 1/3 of the purchase amount to put into the contract as a burnable deposit. Put another way, if you only have 10 DAI now, you can only open a buy offer for 30 DAI, and must wait for it to complete before using the newly bought DAI to open up a bigger offer. (The 1/3 ratio will be customizeable in a future version, but even if it's set to 0 (which comes with its own problems), the Buyer still needs ETH to pay gas.) Most tragically of course, this means that if you don't already have some crypto, you can't use this tool to get crypto. This comes from the fact that both parties must have "skin in the game" for the game theory to work, and a smart contract can't hold fiat--only crypto. We have solid ideas on how to address this drawback in the not-too-distant future, but for now it's time to launch this thing. We'll write more about these ideas soon.
Dangerous and Scary To Use
In rare cases, a user may have to burn DAI. In all cases, the user must risk the credible threat of burning DAI. DAIHard Game Theory explains why this is necessary. A cautious, rational user can gather information (probably via our subreddit!) about how people have used the tool, successfully and unsuccessfully. They can then create a buy or sell offer with wisely chosen settings based on what has worked for others. Other cautious, rational users can find this offer and commit to the trade if they dare. We expect the vast majority of committed trades should involve rational, cautious users, and should therefore resolve happily. But each trade must contain a credible risk of burning DAI, and inevitably there will be sloppy trades that result in burns. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the first burn to occur. Unlike the previous issue, this drawback will stick around: credible risk is absolutely necessary for the platform to function without centralized control.
The core of the whole system is the Factory contract. It has no owner, as well as no suicide or pause code. Barring some unknown bug, it cannot be stopped, and will happily open new offers for anyone who has the DAI and can pay the gas cost in ETH, and will also list all created trades for anyone with access to Ethereum. This will remain so for as long as Ethereum remains functional. The HTML/JS front-end (built in Elm, by the way, with the lovely elm-ethereum!) is currently hosted on Github pages, which is centralized--but even if Github takes down the page and deletes the code, it's a minor step to get the page hosted on IPFS (which is on our near-term roadmap in any case). Like Toastycoin, this thing was immortal the moment it was deployed (even more immortal than RadarRelay, for example, which does rely on an ownership role). Both DAIHard and Toastycoin (and probably whatever we build next) will last for as long as a single Ethereum node continues mining, and it will remain easy to use as long as someone can find the HTML/JS front-end and the Metamask plugin.
No Sign Up, No Limits: All you Need is Love Metamask
It's smart contracts all the way down, so DAIHard never asks any nosy questions--if you have Metamask installed and set up, with some ETH and DAI, you can immediately open or commit to a trade. (In fact, we're so inclusive, even machines are allowed--no CAPTCHA here!) You're limited only by the collateral you put up, so if you have 10,000 DAI you could open up a buy offer for 30,000 DAI (or a sell offer for 10,000 DAI) right now. We do reccommend trying the tool out first with a small amount of DAI... But we're not your mom! Do what you want!
It simply doesn't matter where you are, because DAIHard doesn't need to interface with any particular jurisdiction or payment system to work. DIAHard works by incentivizing people (or robots?) to navigate the particular real-world hurdles of bank transfers, cash drops, or other fiat transfer methods. These incentives work whether you're in America, Zimbabwe, or the Atlantic; and they would work whether the "fiat" is USD, seashells, or Rai Stones.
Any Fiat Type, and Highly Customizeable
Here are some examples of the types of trades you could open on DAIHard.
Sell 200 DAI for $220 USD, granted they bring the cash to you by tomorrow afternoon in Central Park, NYC.
Buy 20 DAI with a $30 gift card for Amazon AWS that you were never going to use.
Sell 20 DAI in exchange for a $20 Steam game.
While in Vietnam, sell 200 DAI to someone for €180 anytime in the next two weeks, provided they deposit it into your German bank account.
Buy 30 DAI for 8,000 ZWD, delivered anonymously by cash drop, sometime within the next month.
Buy 500 DAI for $550 via PayPal, but wait 3 weeks for before the DAI is released, (so the paypal transaction can't be reversed).
As the DAIHard community grows, users will doubtless find much more creative ways to use the system, and we will discover together which types of trades are reliable and which are more risky. Because users can set their own margins and phase timeout settings, we expect even the riskiest trades remain available on the marketplace, with higher margins or longer phase periods. In a future version, we will open up more options to the user creating the offer--for example, allow modifying the default 1/3 buyer's deposit to some other ratio.
Extensible by Third Parties
Do you have some nifty idea for how to display and organize user reputation? Or maybe some idea for how trades could be chained togeher? Maybe you'd like to design a notification system for DAIHard? Maybe you just want a different color scheme! Well, you won't need our permission to do any of this. Any tool that watches the same Factory contract will share the pool of trades, regardless of which tool actually creates the trade.
This Is a Big Fucking Deal
DAIHard is a turning point in crypto and a breakthrough in decentralized markets, and is an irreversible augmentation of the Ethereum platform. What we now have is a gateway to crypto completely devoid of centralized components--rendering entry and exit unkillable, flexible, borderless, and private. Centralized exchanges, and the control they impose, can now be bypassed by anyone with ETH and DAI.
Sensex rallies over 100 points led by gains in auto, banking stocks
Bharti Airtel gained 1% after the company’s losses narrowed on quarter. Investors await the next bi-monthly policy statement, due on 6 February. https://preview.redd.it/7zy4vwzyy1f41.jpg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eeb8ee361cae02f95ee0709ce447111d759d1142 Indian equity markets on Wednesday had opened little changed but soon rose nearly 0.4% led by gains in auto and banking stocks. At 9.40am, the benchmark Sensex was up 0.4% or 174.50 points to 40963.88, while Nifty gained 0.41% or 49.5 points to 12029.10. Most auto stocks gained at open, buoyed by the monthly sales data, which was in line with expectations. Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, M&M, Apollo Tyres, Bajaj Auto gained 1-4%. TVS Motors gained 5%. Among banking stocks, Axis Bank, Federal Bank, RBL Bank, Indusind Bank, SBI, HDFC Bank, Kotak rose 0.4-1.22%. Index heavyweight Bharti Airtel gained 1% after the company reported narrowing of its losses quarter-on-quarter. For October-December, the telecom major reported a loss of ₹1,035 crore, less than the ₹23,145.60 crore loss posted in the September quarter. Investors now await the next bi-monthly policy statement, due on 6 February, with the market keenly eyeing commentary on inflation and growth forecast. The RBI is widely expected to stand pat on rates, with the repo rate unchanged at 5.15% due to inflation trending higher, a Mint survey has found. On Tuesday, the market had surged nearly 900 points largely because of fall in crude oil prices and improvement in manufacturing PMI data. “We believe the budget has been a non-event and belied the lofty expectations. The government, however, has tried to balance growth concerns and fiscal prudence while providing relief to several segments e.g. tax relief for the middle-class and abolition of DDT. We believe the market’s focus should now revert to fundamentals, viz. corporate earnings growth and global cues around the spread of Coronavirus”, said Motilal Oswal Research in a report to its investors. The Indian rupee had opened marginally higher at 71.21 against the US dollar, up from its previous close of 71.27. The 10-year bond yield was marginally up at 6.516% compared with its previous close of 6.505%. Asian stocks were steady with positive bias, while overnight, the Nasdaq hit a record high and the S&P 500 had its best day in six months as fears of a significant economic impact from the coronavirus epidemic tapered off after China’s central bank intervened for the second straight day. China injected 1.7 trillion yuan ($242.74 billion) via reverse repo on Monday and Tuesday, helping Chinese stocks recover some losses and lifting the world equity index . The stimulus boosted investor sentiment even as several economists cut forecasts for 2020 global growth as the fast-spreading virus hampers business operations in the world’s second-largest economy. Watch our Stock Market Target Calls Quality, Track sheet – Click Here or Subscribe us for Stock Market Trading >>>>Stock Cash Tips
Comin' at ya! So in addition to my Nifty Or Thrifty article each month, I spend the time between NoT articles with some deeper examinations of Pokémon in the current Cup that I think may deserve a little more attention, ones that might have breakout potential. My last couple articles happen to have covered repeats from the past, takin a second look at Beedrill and Heracross. So I guess third time's the charm, as today we are rehashing a whole group of old AND some new 'mons, putting them all...under the lights. Just as it was in Rainbow Cup, when I wrote a very similar article on Razor Leafers, Grass as a type in Jungle Cup is highlighted by Frenzy Plant. The first of the busted Community Day starter moves (back from just the second Community Day ever), Frenzy Plant deals a ridiculous 100 damage for only 45 energy, the second highest Damage Per Energy (DPE) available in the game. The two most common users of it (we're ignoring Sceptile, since Frenzy Plant is only its third--maybe even fourth now--best move) also both have Vine Whip, an true fast move that generates energy quickly (4.0 Energy Per Turn (EPT)) with only slightly below average Damage Per Turn (DPT) at 2.5 (3.0 is generally considered average). It is this moveset combination, along with a good secondary move in Sludge Bomb, that has put Venusaur as the reigning Grass king in two straight Cups now. He is the Grass to beat, able to best Vigoroth, Wigglytuff, (nearly) all Electrics, AND most of the other Grasses. That all being said... this article is NOT about Venusaur. Or Frenzy Plant. Or even Vine Whip. This is instead about the primary alterative and perhaps more infamous Grass strategy, and the main candidates that fall into that camp. I'm talking (again) about the Razor Leafers. Razor Leaf is the other Grass fast move useful in PvP other than Vine Whip. (No, don't talk to me about Bullet Seed. It doesn't count. It's horrid... really.) Unlike the high energy but so-so damage output of Whip, Razor Leaf is used to just shred things up without even needing charge moves. It has the highest DPT in the game (a whopping 5.5 DPT, a full point and a half above everything not named Charm... and yes, still higher than Charm too), though at the cost of low EPT (only 2.0, a snail's pace). But that's okay, because when done right, Razor Leaf can take down its targets, on its own, sometimes before any charge moves are ready to launch. (More on that shortly.) Even if it doesn't manage to beat out charge move use, Razor Leafers can often obliterate things weak to Grass--or even NOT weak to Grass!--with only fast moves, taking the opponent's shields out of the equation, or at worst, absolutely ensuring they have to burn one just to survive the fast move onslaught. But this is more than just a specific move analysis. As you probably know by now, my articles (and the Under The Lights features especially) focus on very specific Pokémon. So let's do that! Here are the most relevant Jungle Cup Pokémon that have access to the powerful Razor Leaf, brought to you in high definition tableized format. Feast your eyes! (Razor Leaf as a Legacy move marked with an ᴸ)
Recommended Charge Moves (Typing)
Other Charge Moves (Typing)
Leaf Blade (G), Sludge Bomb (P)
Acid Spray (P), Leaf Tornado (G), Solar Beam (G)
Seed Bomb (G), Sludge Bomb (P)
Power Whip (G)
Leaf Blade (G), Dazzling Gleam (F)
Petal Blizzard (G)
Sludge Bomb (P), Moonblast (F)
Petal Blizzard (G), Solar Beam (G)
Sludge Bomb (P), Moonblast (F)
Petal Blizzard (G)
Grass Knot (G), Sludge Bomb (P)
Dazzling Gleam (F), Solar Beam (G)
Sludge Bomb (P), Dazzling Gleam (F)
Petal Blizzard (G)
Stone Edge (R), Earthquake (G)
Solar Beam (G)
Body Slam (N), Energy Ball (G)
Solar Beam (G)
Grass Knot (G), Ancient Power (R)
Energy Ball (G)
Ice Beam (I), Hydro Pump (W)
Blizzard (I), Solar Beam (G)
First let's quick discuss what's NOT listed: the Vine Whippers. My reasoning is simple and the same as last time: running Razor Leaf on Venusaur, Meganium, and even Ivysaur is, in own opinion, a waste of potential. Remember that Vine Whip generates energy literally twice as fast as Razor Leaf, and with those three, you want to fire off as many of their potent charge moves as possible. (Ivy lacks Frenzy Plant, but Power Whip is a close approximation.) The Grass charge moves are important, but their secondary moves are just as (if not even more) important for critical coverage. The 'Saurs NEED Sludge Bomb as a legit threat to Bugs and Flyers that can otherwise check them completely unfettered, and to have a leg up against opposing Grasses. Meganium NEEDS Earthquake--which already feels slow even with Whip's high EPT--for similar reasons. They'll never get there with Razor Leaf, and the opponent will know it. Yes, Razor Leaf will deal much bigger neutral damage than Vine Whip in some bad matchups, but all important versatility and shield pressure will be gone. One particularly damning example is Venusaur versus Vigoroth... Venusaur wins the 0 shield with Vine Whip but with Razor Leaf, Viggy has time to get in TWO Body Slams before Venusaur gets to a charge move and Venusaur loses. Don't do it... especially since there are plenty of other powerful Razor Leafers to choose from. A note before we dive fully into the various options. Looking at the chart above, you'll notice that the majority of true Razor Leafers are on the glassy side with high Attack but below average (or downright poor) Defense, HP, or both. Normally, that's not a good thing in PvP, as high Attack stats mean higher CP and lower overall Defense and/or HP. However, with a move like Razor Leaf, where you want to deal as much raw damage as possible with each hit, this is the rare exception to the rule. As one example, Victreebel can kill Alolan Gravelerbefore it reaches a charge move with just Razor Leaf while, for example, Bayleef cannot. Or as an extreme example, an Attack-maximized Weepinbell (with a whopping 147 Attack) can kill Lanturn with just Razor Leaf before it can reach a Thunderbolt. I am not necessarily advocating you look for a 15 Attack IV Razor Leafer to throw out there (as it will be even glassier than normal that way)... I'm more trying to say that an Attack-heavy Razor Leafer is not necessarily a bad thing in PvP. And that also highlights the advantage they have other the Vine Whippers. When Grass damage is super effective, a Razor Leafer will often outperform even the potent Vine Whip/Frenzy Plant combo. Take the A-Grav example again. While most RLers can dust it off without any charge moves coming into play, Venusaur wins but with only about half the HP of the typical Razor Leafer (Vic comes out with 60 HP, for reference), and while it forces Grav to burn a shield, it ALSO has to use a shield itself to survive. As another example, the majority of Razor Leafers beat Magnezone even though Razor Leaf is resisted, because even when 'not very effective', RL is such a powerful move that it still deals decent damage with each hit. Victreebel, for example, wins because no matter when 'Zone chooses to use its first charge move (even if it uses it the second it is first available), Vic beats down 'Zone JUST before it get enough energy to fire the Flash Cannon it would need to win... the same Flash Cannon that CAN take out Venusaur. And as you might have gathered by how I keep using it as an example, I think the most well-rounded Razor Leafer continues to beVictreebel. Vic started to make a name for itself in the closing days of Twilight Cup as a hard check to Azumarill and Tentacruel and the Nidos that could also shred a number of other meta picks that took neutral damage from the then-recently-buffed Razor Leaf. Even then, Venusaur with Frenzy Plant was king, but the sheer speed at which Razor Leaf took things down got Vic some play. And you know what? I think it is still the best Razor Leaf option available in any Cup that doesn't include Tropius... like Rainbow (where it had great success, especially with Quag running amok) and now here in Jungle. Like other Razor Leafers, Vic is best when able to just spam fast moves to victory. Razor Leaf alone is enough to beat every Electric in Jungle (except that pesky flying Zapdos) AND defeat the big "Normal" threats Vigoroth and Wigglytuff (the latter before it can fire a charge move), the two main marks of success for a Grass in Jungle Cup. But Victreebel's main advantage is its charge moves. Leaf Blade is the best possible move to pair with Razor Leaf, needing only 35 energy to fire off an impressive 70 damage. Even with slow charging Razor Leaf, that's only nine seconds on average... slow, but not TOO slow. It is all but guaranteed to be ready to fire on the next 'mon to follow whatever you just killed off with Razor Leaf, and 70 damage (with STAB on top of it) hurts even when resisted. You can get to a Leaf Tornado for only one more Razor Leaf, but my personal recommendation is to add Sludge Bomb as the second move--even though it requires a total of a painfully slow thirteen Razor Leafs--to give it the same versatile threat as Venusaur. With Vic having more than enough energy for it (it requires 50) after taking down VigWig or most of the Electrics, it's also a good case for using just Razor Leaf to finish something off and then dropping a Bomb on he followup 'mon. You could also argue for Acid Spray--with the same cost as Bomb--as a "parting gift" before Vic bites the dust, but in my opinion, when you're using a Razor Leafer, the name of the game is damage damagedamage, so for me it's Leaf Blade/Sludge Bomb. Vic is unique among RLers in having Spray (and Tornado!) though, so if messing with the opponent's stats and weakening their Pokémon is your game, go for it. The same is mostly true of the rest of the Razor Leafers, with some key differences I will attempt to cover briefly. Victreebel's pre-evolution Weepinbell requires a Legacy version, as it cannot currently learn Razor Leaf anymore. But if you have a RL Weeper, it has the highest Attack stat of these Razor Leafers (tied with Roserade), and decent HP, but the most pitiful Defense of the lot. (There's ALWAYS a trade off for high Attack in Great League!) It has some of the best charge moves of the bunch, with Seed Bomb being nearly as fast to fire as Leaf Blade (just one Razor Leaf difference) and Sludge Bomb again making an appearance. Those moves are so good that another good move, Power Whip (remember that from Ivysaur?) doesn't even make the cut. It performs similarly to Victreebel... in fact, a deeper dive revealed that they seem to share all the same wins and losses against meta relevant Pokémon. Weeper is more boom or bust than Vic, sometimes emerging from those wins with a LOT more HP (Magnezone, for example, where Vic, if you remember from above, emerges with 15 HP but Weeper comes out with over five times more HP because its more powerful Leafs kill Magnezone before it can reach a second charge move). Conversely, there are other important battles where the low bulk really costs it, such as versus Vigoroth (Weeper JUST barely escapes with a win, as opposed to Vic's more comfortable margin). The Defense is a direct factor, as each Counter and charge move does more damage to Weeper than Vic due to the difference in Defense and overall bulk. So like I said, Victreebel with more boom AND bust potential. Bellossom is a close comp to Victreebel, having the same RazorBlade (haha I just as funny as last month) move combo as Vic. It also has Dazzling Gleam, which would be more intriguing if A.) it didn't cost a whopping 70 energy to fire, so you won't be getting to it often (if at all), and B.) Fairy had more than just two super effective targets (in Jungle, it's basically just Fighting types Heracross and Breloom... the small handful of eligible Darks and single Dragon type are nowhere to be seen). As it is, you will almost certainly end up using only Leaf Blade as the charge move, which is far from a bad thing. (It would be perfectly valid, if you're feeling thrifty, to not add a second move at all.) But the key distinction between Bell and Vic is the typing. Bellossom is pure Grass, and without Vic's Poison subtyping, it gets hit a LOT harder by anything with Poison moves, aka many other Grasses and also Bugs like Beedrill, who are all on the rise to combat Wigglytuff. And without the Poison subtyping, it is ALSO now weak to Wigglytuff itself, falling to the pink bunny monster's Charm. (Yes, it burns a shield, but that's a pretty common tale for Wiggly, as it is turning out.) And it cannot typically beat Wiggly with just Razor Leaf, either. Bummer. In Rainbow Cup, this was counterbalanced by pure Grasses not being weak to Confusion and Psychic attacks that ripped up the Poison/Grasses... Exeggutocute and Slowbro/poke were prevelant, making that a very real advantage. But here in the Jungle, Exeggutor has mostly faded away, Girafarig is more punchline than actual threat, and really only the Moths (Venomoth and Dustox) are still in as Confusioners, and with their Bug and Poison moves, they beat down all the Grasses anyway, regardless of whether they're part Poison or not. Pure Grasses had their use in Rainbow, but here in the Jungle, it's almost entirely a disadvantage. One of the benefactors of the move shakeup last week was Vileplume, who finally got a charge move with a cost low enough to actually, realistically reach it with Razor Leaf, and it's a good move too! Sludge Bomb brings Plume into relevance among the RLers... previously its fastest move was Petal Blizzard, which cost 65 energy and was underwhelming anyway. In fact, if you purchase a second move at all, I actually recommend one that costs even MORE energy: Moonblast, at 70 energy. You may not reach it often, but at least it has some different coverage and is neutral in most spots where Grass moves are ineffective. (Really, though, this is a case where you could easily get by with just one charge move and pocket that 50k dust instead.) Vileplume's win rate is similar to Victreebel, and yes, it beats all the same Electrics (and Vigoroth and Wiggly, JUST outracing the latter to its first charge) that you'd expect of your typical Razor Leafer. With bulk advantages over Vic/Weeper and the typing advantage over Bellossom, it's actually a pretty strong contender now as long as you don't care too much about Leaf Blade. Again, the pre-evolution is a viable option as well. Gloom has the same moves as Vileplume with a bit less Attack but greater bulk (not surprising since it is leveled up higher). It still beats VigWig and the same Electric lineup you're used to by now, but with a curious twist: with its increased bulk, it can actually outlast Zapdos (who beats all the other Razor Leafers we've covered so far), taking a Drill Peck to the chin and finishing Zappy off with ineffective Razor Leafs. Mighty impressive. A point to bulk (and Gryffindor!). I have advocated Gloom as the thrifty (read as: dust broke) player's Razor Leafer of choice for several Cups now, and that continues here. The first ones on the list that we couldn't use in Rainbow Cup are Roserade and Roselia, who I will cover together because of their strong similarities and similar moves. (And because I am aware I may bump up against TSA's character limit at this rate!) Both have top-notch Attack prowess but very poor bulk, making them as glassy as Weepinbell above and again true boom or bust options. Roserade has the move advantage (Grass Knot is a good move with the same charge time as Sludge Bomb), Roselia slightly less wretched bulk, but with Sludge Bomb, they both function basically the same way as Razor Leafers. And yes, both beat all non-Flying Electrics, VigWig, etc. that you've come to expect. What sets them apart a bit is that they are the best at operating as NON-Razor Leafers. Most Pokémon in this article have the very bad alternate fast move Acid, which overall functions similarly to Razor Leaf against things weak to Poison (like Wiggly), but significantly worse against everything else, and the energy generation is only marginally (0.5 EPT) better at the cost of dealing barely half the damage of RL. Hard pass. (Most of the other options below aren't much better, as we'll see.) Roserade/lia, however, have Poison Jab, a very good move (3 DPT and 3.5 EPT), and while it doesn't look like a great win rate on paper, what it does is turn them into Grass killers able to defeat most of its fellow Razor Leafers and even Venusaur. (Despite the lack of a good Grass move, Roselia is generally a little better in this curveball role than Roserade due to the bulk difference.) And while this also still works against Wigglytuff, it gives up sure wins versus Vigoroth and many of the Electrics to do it. Proooooooobably not worth it, but if for some reason you expect a Grass-heavy meta, I suppose it IS an option. (And considering how much better PJ is than Acid, hopefully this is enough to convince you NOT to try Acid at all... in ANY form! Ahem....) One last starter family to cover, starting with end-of-the-evolutionary-line Torterra. With charge moves Stone Edge and Earthquake, and a unique Ground sub-typing (TRIPLE resistance to Electrics, baby!), Torterror certainly stands out on this list. And while it not surprisingly beats down Electrics the hardest (ALL of them, including Zapdos), unfortunately its win rate takes a dip elsewhere. Primarily this is driven by having a subpar, Gloom-like Attack stat without having Gloom-level bulk to compensate. Its win against Vigoroth is very uncomfortably close and unlike all the other options above, it cannot reliably beat Wigglytuff (it's a tie instead). It CAN put the hurt on Flyers if it lands a Stone Edge, but that's not something you necessarily want to bank on. I still think Torterra will shine in a Cup one of these days (maybe after its future Community Day?), but for now, it's just too slow--even among other Razor Leafers--with its weaker fast moves. However, its pre-evolution Grotle has popped up at a few tournaments so far, including on the winning team in a 200+ player tournament in Chile as their only Grass type. Like most of the others here, Grotle beats the Electrics and Viggy, but like Torterra, only ties Wiggly. But what really makes it appealing (and is likely the main reason it has been popping up a few places) is that it has Vigoroth's bread and butter charge move Body Slam. With slow Razor Leaf charging it, obviously it's not nearly as spammy as usual, but it does charge at the same rate as Leaf Blade and while it's a little less powerful and won't ever hit super effectively, it also only very rarely hits ineffectively either. You can add Energy Ball or even Solar Beam as "why not? it's only 10k dust" second moves, but if you're playing Grotle, it's all about that Body Slam. It does have a respectable win rate, though I'm not sure if it will continue to take people by surprise for long as news of its successes keeps popping up here and there. And now that I've written about it. Ummm... oops. Last among the starters is Bayleef, another unique option that I talked up a little back during the GO Stadium Jungle Cup Meta Discussion... so I feel obligated to give it some time here. Bayleef's low Attack (108) is very underpowered compared to the others, and thus it can't outrace much of anything with its comparatively weak Razor Leaf spam. Despite that, its win rate is still very comparable to the other Leafers, partly because it has the best overall bulk and partly because of the move that makes it really unique: Ancient Power. Bayleef still beats all Electrics (besides Zapdos, though it can also absorb a Drill Peck and if it lands an Ancient Power, it wins outright), still beats Vigoroth, still (barely) beats Wiggly. But Ancient Power is the real advantage, giving it an ability to punish Flyers and Bugs that is nearly unheard of with other Razor Leafers (or Grasses in general). Yes, we just talked about Torterror with Stone Edge, but AP charges two Razor Leafs faster and has a potential stat boost as well, giving it far superior potential. If you can get an AP through unshielded, Bayleef can outslug Venomoth, Pidgeot, Masquerain, and even the bulky Queen of Grassassins Vespiquen. No Grass has any business doing any of that, but Bayleef, quite uniquely, can, giving it a legitimate leg up against unprepared (and even some prepared!) opponents... but there's a tradeoff. The others listed can all be caught at the right size for Great League use (even Weepinbell and Gloom, as pre-evolutions, can be caught or evolved up to around 1500 CP at or around Level 35), whereas Bayleef really needs to be maxed out (and even then, a perfect one tops out at 1454). He's a unique and powerful option, but he is not for the thrifty. And finally, the oddest of the oddballs, the most unique Pokémon on this entire list, the fan favorite... Ludicolo! With a Water sub-typing, you would expect him to lose to Electrics, but that is generally not true... Ludicolo still beats them all except for a razor (leaf) close loss to Magnezone and--you guessed it!--Zapdos again. And yes, Ludicolo does defeat Vigoroth and ties Wigglytuff. And just as Bayleef and even Torterra can steal a win from Flyers and Bugs with their Rock moves, Ludicolo has the potential to do the same against Flyers and Grasses with Ice Beam, which is really the only charge move you need (and likely the only one you'll ever reach anyway). It does 80-100+ damage to all Flyers (Normal, Bug, and Electric alike) and can be a very nasty surprise to any of them the opponent sends in to try and take Ludicolo out. This is not its most ideal Cup (it probably needs a Cup with Water and not specifically including other Grass to reach its awesome, Camerupt-esque potential), but Ludicolo is always a fun option to consider, and this is the first chance we'd had to use him, so if you've been itching to roll him out there, at least now you know what to expect (beyond his sweet dance moves). LUDICOLO! Okay, let's get to the TL;DR summary before I COMPLETELY blow past the character limit. A strong Razor Leafer can ratchet up the pressure akin to even the mighty Venusaur. The unprepared can wilt under Razor Leafs before they have proper time to switch out, and even the experienced are likely to give Razor Leaf the respect it deserves. That damage adds up quick! If you don't have Venusaur, running a potent Razor Leafer as your only Grass IS a little riskier, putting you at a disadvantage against Bugs and Flyers that Venusaur's speed (and Sludge Bombs!) can sometimes make up for, but it can also defeat a wide swath of very relevant things in the Jungle. My personal recommendation continues to be Victreebel, with the best mix of Attack high enough to beat down several very relevant 'mons with fast moves alone and charge moves that you can realistically expect to fire off (sometimes more than once, which is not often true of Razor Leafers!). But hopefully this article has given you a good perspective on the intricacies of your various options and can help you decide what is best for YOUR team. Good luck! As always, the sims above from the wonderful PvPoke.com are a good start to the story, but this is still certainly not the whole story. Sim with these yourself, test with them yourself, and please: discuss! I always relish your feedback. Good luck out there. Take some razors with you to hack through all those leaves (and Electrics... and apes... and pink... bunny... uh, things) in the Jungle! P.S. - LUDICOLO!
Leet? No no no... it's leek. So in addition to my Nifty Or Thrifty article each month, I spend the time between Cups doing some deep dives on Pokémon (usually non-"meta" ones) in the ongoing Cup that I think may deserve a little more attention, ones that might have breakout potential. Here's another! It's time to put a very unusual bird...under the lights. The Normal typing has quickly boiled down to two categories in Jungle Cup: Normal/Flying birds (primarily Noctowl and legacy Pidgeot)... and Vigoroth. Several players (myself included) have tried to make Munchlax and other Normals work with... well, let's be generous and say mixed success. (I still think Munchie works for some teams out there willing to take a look. But anyway....) While Noctowl and Pidgeot have risen to the top of the "Angry Bird" list--and for good reason, considering their potent moves and bulk--there are others that folks have dabbled in. Staraptor with Close Combat, Chatot with Noctowl's same charge moves and the potential for Fire Blast, even Fearow with Sky Attack and Drill Run have all been discussed... but mostly dismissed. Their stats and/or moves are just lacking compared to Pidgeowl (Nocteot?), making them worse clones, at best. But there is one angry (or at least, furrowed browed) bird that is very, very unique. It is the only bird in the game to carry a Grass move... AND the only bird to carry a Bug move. And they're both really good moves in PvP, too! Hold on, getting a little ahead of myself. Let's take a deeper look at Farfetch'd.
Normal/Flying Type Attack: 110 (at Great League size) Defense: 103 (GL) HP: 123 (GL) Fast Moves: Fury Cutter (Bug, 2.0 DPT, 4.0 EPT, 0.5 CD) Air Slash (Flying, 3.0 DPT, 3.0 EPT, 1.5 CD) Cutᴸ (Normal, 3.0 DPT, 2.0 EPT, 0.5 CD) Charge Moves: Leaf Blade (Grass, 70 damage, 35 energy) Aerial Ace (Flying, 55 damage, 45 energy) Air Cutter (Flying, 60 damage, 55 energy) As hinted in Sceptile's spotlight feature yesterday, Farfetch'd can carry the exact same moveset as Sceptile's most ideal set. Fury Cutter was weird for a Grass like Sceptile to be using, but even moreso for a Normal Flying bird. Same with Leaf Blade... what is a bird doing with one of the best Grass moves in PvP? Both are, thematically, thanks to the leek that Farfetch'd carries around and uses as an oddball weapon. (The 5th Doctor Who with his celery lapel would be proud.) And let's get this out of the way right off the bat: don't use Cut or Air Cutter. They are both awful, awful moves that will lose you games. Don't do it, man. The only thing they will cut is your legs out from under you. Anyway, let us examine the "Sceptile moveset" first. Here is how Fury CutteLeaf Blade/Aerial Ace Farfetch'd performs in Jungle Cup overall. The first thing you'll probably notice is that it does a Flyer's job of handling Grasses. Cradily eeks out a win, as does a Bubble Ludicolo (though the generally preferred Razor Leaf Ludicolo loses), but little Farfetch'd beats all the rest, including Razor Leafers like Victreebel, Rock-tossing Bayleef, and tanky Stone Edging Torterra. It outraces Breloom to a second charge move and emerges victorious, takes it on the chin from Exeggutor's Confusion and wins, and yes, beats the mighty Vine Whippers, including poster boy Vensuaur (by a razor thin margin, but still... and it does look a lot better if you successfully sniff out Frenzy Plant and shield accordingly). And because it's only fair to compare them, not too shockingly, it does defeat Sceptile with the same moveset. Of note: while it may appear in those sims that Leaf Blade is being used as bait (and would be ineffective if left unshielded), PvPoke has gotten a bit smarter in the timing of those baits. Farfetch'd could be using an Aerial Ace in that spot instead--it delays the firing of LB until an AA is charged--and the results if you just double Ace instead of using LB are generally exactly the same. Hats off to u/Empoleon_Dynamite and PvPoke for the continued improvement in sims! Anyway, the other thing you'd hope to get out of a Flying type is Bug squashing. Here, the performance is a little more uneven. Fury Cutter is not very effective against Flying Bugs or Poison Bugs (as Flying and Poison both resist Bug), so Farfetch'd falls short against staples like Beedrill, Scyther, Vespiquen, and even YanMAGA (bothhalves). It does handle Heracross, but that's not the kind of performance you want overall from your Flying type. So as fun as Fury Cutter on a Normal Flying bird is... it's time to deviate from the Sceptile set. Let's swap in Air Slash as the fast move instead, turning Farfetch'd into a more traditional Flyer, and see what happens. First, let's see if we gave anything up. Back to the Grasses... and yep, Farfetch'd with Air Slash/Aerial Ace/Leaf Blade still pretty much beats them all. Tangrowth now escapes with a win (the speed of Fury Cutter made it an easy win for Farfetch'd before), and Feint Attack Shiftry (which, let's be honest, NOBODY is going to use) and Alolan Exeggutor (probably the same can be said here) force a tie. (And Cradily is still a loss.) But it still manages all the other wins it did before. Some are nearly identical to the Fury Cutter results, and some are better (for example, Torterra and now a win against Bubble Ludicolo being two easy examples). And the difference against things particularly weak to Flying is most evident against Breloom, who Farfetch'd now defeats with Air Slash alone before Loom can get to even its fastest charge move. In fact, Farfetch'd can also beat or at least tie most relevant Grasses with just Air Slash if it so chooses, including Victreebel (where it now has 90 energy--aka two Aerial Aces--to throw at the next 'mon up), SceptileExeggutor, and even Ivysaur and Venusaur. Still probably better to try and force shields (or at least a quicker kill) with a charge move or two (except MAYBE against Victreebel, if Farfetch'd is starting fresh in that battle), but I thought it was worth noting all the same. So with Air Slash, Farfetch'd still rips up the Grasses. How about Bugs? Oh yeah! Now Farfetch'd has become the Bug slayer you hope for from a Flying type. Beedrill, Scyther, MasquerainVenomoth, YanMAGA (yes, bothhalves again), and even tanky Vespiquen all reliably go down now. Among relevant Bugs, ONLY Forretress is safe (and even it is left with less than a quarter of its life and 0 energy). And like with Breloom, Heracross goes down especially hard. And Farfetch'd can again win with Air Slash alone in other relevant matchups, such as versus Scyther (and it can even take an X-Scissor on the chin and still win, saving shields!) and Masquerain, banking a ton of energy to throw multiple charges moves at the next 'mon up. So Farfetch'd is a solid Bird with some unique usage... all this sounds great so far, right? But there's a catch, of course. With similar moves, Sceptile reliably handled Electrics and most other Grasses, but struggled with Bugs, as it could pound on them with Aerial Ace but took super effective damage in return all the while, and therefore usually lost. Farfetch'd eats up the Bugs, but as with all Flyers, its Achilles heel is Electrics. I won't sugar coat it: with AS/AA/LB, Farfetch'd loses to them all. It DOES do better with Fury Cutter, getting a surprisingly strong win against Bug-weak Alolan Raichu and forcing a tie with Grass-weak Lanturn and nearly trading with Alolan Graveler and Golem. But realistically, as with even the best Angry Birds, Farfetch'd versus an Electric is a loss. If Farfetch'd gets stranded against one, take it on the chin, don't bother wasting shields, and move on. Not a ton to say with the last major typing: Normal. With inferior bulk, Farfetch'd is typically going to lose to Noctowl and Pidgeot, as you'd expect. (Leaf Blade is obviously of no help there, so it comes down to a battle of the bulk and the moves, and with AS/AA, Farfetch'd is on the losing side of both.) And as mentioned way up at the top, the only other really relevant Normal is King Vigoroth. As with the other Birds, Farfetch'd loses there too (darn that Normal typing!), but it doesn't go down without a fight, leaving Viggy with about the same HP as do Pidgeot and Noctowl. Little guy performs like a big leaguer. So where does that leave us? Farfetch'd is not quite as good as Noctowl, or in most cases even Pidgeot. It's got good moves and packs a nice surprise with Leaf Blade, but it can't match the top two Angry Birds. BUT I think it's safe to put it third behind them, and to recommend it as a potential replacement. Other than losing the head-to-head, its performance in ideal AND non-ideal battles is very close, buoyed by Leaf Blade being an excellent baiting and/or neutral damage move unique to only it. But it DOES max out a bit below 1500 CP, so it's really best to max it (try for a Lucky one!)... this is not an option for the dust-constrained. But if you can afford it, and are looking for something fun and outside the norm that can still perform well for you, maxing this leet (or is that leek?) duck is not such a farfetched idea. (I waited ALL article to finally drop that one. 😆) Alright, time to wrap this up. I would direct your attention to this field report of Farfetch'd from u/sp3n1337. As he noted, it lost to both Vigoroth and Noctowl and his opponents did not offer up opportunities against Bugs or Grasses to capitalize on. Tough luck for him. 😓 So just a reminder: Farfetch'd really needs Bugs/Grass to beat up on to shine (as do the Birds in general, really). Use it judiciously. A shout-out again to the GO: Stadium PvP Discord (join today!) for their encouragement and letting me bounce wacky ideas off them, and of course to u/Empoleon_Dynamite and PvPoke.com for their ever-improved sims. Those sims, as always, are a good start to the story, but they are certainly not the whole story. Run some sims yourself, test with Farfetch'd yourself if you can, and please: discuss! I always love to hear your feedback and any discussions that come out of these deeper dives. Thanks for the continued support and for taking the time to read these silly little articles of mine. I hope you continue to enjoy them as much as I continue to enjoy writing them. :-) Good luck out there!
RIL gains 2%, TCS and HCL Tech flat ahead of Q3 results
Shares of Reliance Industries gained over 2 per cent in Friday’s session, while two other Nifty stocks TCS and HCL Technologies were trading flat ahead of their December quarter earnings later in the day. https://preview.redd.it/200j7wcg9ab41.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b94ee29d7db1f45d83bc1c620fe46f409fde27a Reliance Industries (RIL) gained 1.75 per cent to Rs 1,564.65. TCS edged 0.21 per cent higher to Rs 2,243.05 while HCL Technologies was trading 0.10 per cent higher at Rs 594. RIL is expected to report a 10-14 per cent yearly rise in profit for the December quarter. Retail and telecom businesses may do well, but petchem business may show some weakness. Refining margins for the quarter are likely to stay in $9.2-9.6 range, analysts said. Brokerage Edelweiss Securities expects the company to report a 11.6 per cent jump in consolidated profit at Rs 11,400 crore. It sees petchem Ebitda falling 22.6 per cent, which would be offset by a higher refining margin (up 4.7 per cent). Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is expected to report a flat profit growth on slowdown in banking & financial services and retail segments. A high base in the previous year will be a factor, experts said. HCL Technologies is seen reporting modest growth in profits from a year ago in the December quarter. Margins may also fall sequentially in a seasonally weak quarter for the sector. Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers expects revenue growth in constant currency terms of 0.8 per cent sequentially with IBM revenue contribution of $150 million. Watch our Stock Market Target Calls Quality, Track sheet – Click Here or Subscribe us for Stock Market Trading >>>>Stock Cash Tips
I know the tagline for this Season is supposed to be "Reversal" but it may as well have been "Revival" since we've already had so many renowned players find it within themselves to regroup and go for one last all out attempt to get to BlizzCon. Speaking of having to pull it back together, the two clear favorites in Group G certainly had their moments in 2019 but they were almost without fail also accompanied by seemingly inevitable heartbreak - Dear's remarkable PvT dominance earlier in the year was what no one could stop talking about - right up until the point when the Protoss got irreversibly wrecked by final boss Maru & then the focus quickly switched to his dire PvP, a weakness exposed at a very unfortunate time in the meta - and things didn't necessarily go that much better for GuMiho who during his peak could have convinced you his name should be put up right at the top next to the other truly Elite Terrans, yet at his worst seemed at best lost and insecure in his own play, not what you want to hear when his main strength over the years was being unique & stylistically brilliant. Still, with only having to go through either Armani - a low Tier Zerg by any tangible metric - or alternatively FanTaSy who is basically a Brood War Terran player going through an inexplicable Starcraft II love affair, you could certainly argue today should have been pretty straightforward for the pair of underachieving favorites. Warning: Spoilers Ahead, Obviously We finally got to see Dear back looking like a man on a mission tonight and it basically felt like he smurfed his way into the Ro16 thanks to some confident & merciless plays used to secure 1st place with an undefeated record. The battle for 2nd was something else entirely as both underdogs surprisingly took care of business handily against the Towel Terran in order to reach what turned out to be an amazing last series of the day, with FanTaSy edging out a win in the end on the last map by the tightest of margins.
M1 | GuMiho [ 0 : 2 ] Armani | ★★☆☆☆ | When you can't mech it work
The decision from Armani to go for early Roaches on New Repugnancy felt very refreshing since last time he was faced with an Elite Terran player the Zerg tried to play pretty much only straight up macro games & things went accordingly. Instead, using this early pressure he made GuMiho pull back and posture much more defensively here, buying himself room to grow on the map. From there the Towel Terran did some classic Banshee shenanigans while going into his signature Mech, however that reliance on comfort would end up being the deciding factor for this entire series. Not only was Armani completely ready for this style, he literally hard countered it by immediately going for the right composition basically off the predictability alone and used a tight creep highway to set up Swarm Host attacks that chipped away at the Terran's economy throughout the game. GuMiho never got a chance to breathe from the seemingly endless waves of Roaches and Locusts, which ended up securing this map quite comfortably for the Zerg despite his seemingly failed opening.
As they say, "if it ain't broke don't fix it", the words Armani decided to live by on Acropolis as he put down an early Pool & Gas and went for an even earlier pressure that would end up cancelling his opponent's undefended CC, putting the Terran immediately behind in economy. GuMiho then opted for a technical push off two bases, looking to catch the Zerg sleeping, however the underdog was wide awake and grew even more aggressively after clearing the weak attack. It was time for another Mech attempt after that, although Armani was in an even better position this game & it showed as he started abusing Nydus Worms and the architecture of the map accordingly with his Swarm Hosts, culminating in the Terran tapping out as he legitimately couldn't secure a third mining base for long enough because of the relentless attacks.
It was a stellar start on GSL Cobalt for FanTaSy as he managed to scout his opponent's conservative Stargate in time to go for a quick 3x CC build. Dear on the other hand simply built up his Phoenix fleet and used it to poke as much as he could while going into Colossi, a decision dictated by his opponent's steadily growing number of Marines. The first real action occurred when FanTaSy finally landed his third base and the "go" switch in the Protoss player's head flipped, causing him to immediately start pressuring it. After a few back and forth pokes, Dear found the perfect angles to attack from using his bigger & better army, absolutely demolishing the thinly spread out and unsophisticated Terran defense with the precision of a surgeon.
Things honestly didn't go that much differently on Turbo Cruise '84 either, with a relatively calm opening from each player to set themselves up comfortably for the midgame. Despite the relatively uneventful start, things picked up speed soon enough as FanTaSy walked across the map to cancel the third Nexus before going into double Upgrades himself and continuing with his attempts to pull of Mine Drops. The moment of the game, though, was without a doubt around 9:40 when Dear walked through the green slow fields with his entire army basically directly into Siege Tank fire & Stimmed Bio - admittedly, having an upgrade advantage along with a supply lead - and then the Protoss found a way to nevertheless Storm his way forward & leaned on his Immortals to wipe out the immobile Terran defense to secure his second win, catching FanTaSy just before his Ghosts could be properly utilized and honestly likely more than a little off-guard coming through an area you'd never expect (on a side note, if this attack legitimately happened just 10 seconds later Dear would have looked like he had no idea what he was doing as he gets wrecked, instead the guy found an unreal window of opportunity, so more power to him).
I don't know what someone put in Dear's water today, but things just seemed to keep going his way as he clutched victory from the jaws of defeat on King's Cove, seeing as Armani not only scouted his early Gate all in but also held it pretty comfortably. Imagine the underdog's surprise when the Protoss came back a couple of minutes later after the failed attack with just a few too many Gateway units, pushing his third Hatch to death after picking off Lings and Roaches in the middle of nowhere virtually for free. From there Dear simply kept making literally only Stalkers, Zealots and Sentries & used them to demolish his Zerg opponent, who couldn't keep up while stuck producing units off limited larva.
Aside from an attempted Hatch block and some slight DT shenanigans that got stopped, there wasn't much worth talking about that went down early on Thunderbird. Armani went for a pretty insignificant amount of Mutas a bit later on off basically three Hatches into Roach Ravager Bane, however the choice to build some Corruptors and show them to his opponent as he was also going into a bunch of Upgrades along with Hive was a little too much for the Protoss to swallow. The nearly maxed out Dear finally decided to march his army of Immortals and Archons across the map, almost immediately crushing his opponent's flimsy defense to secure the easiest 4-0 of his career.
The first significant punch on Acropolis was thrown by FanTaSy, getting a bunch of SCV kills thanks to a nifty drop and following it up by going pure Bio versus his opponent's stylistically predictable Mech. Seeing as this map is absolutely huge along with the fact GuMiho did get some worker damage of his own done, I assumed we were going to be in for a TvT of KeeN vs INnoVation proportions that goes into Sky Terran and that pretty much looked to be the case - up until the moment FanTaSy literally walked into his opponent's base, split him in half and won the game basically on accident.
Playing with fire turned out to be the wrong choice for the underdog on New Repugnancy, seeing as mirroring his opponent in the decision to go for Cloaked Banshees ended up costing him around 20 SCV deaths or so after GuMiho found some cute angles at a perfectly weird time. FanTaSy did some work to stay in the game after that, but frankly speaking you're never going to recover from such a terrible deficit against a decent opponent and GuMiho made sure to close things out pretty fast - despite taking some questionable fights - after pulling off a mini Doom Drop that put him even further ahead & made his follow up push unstoppable.
The fight on King's Cove was predictably tempered at the start, seeing as no one wants to get eliminated in the losers' match, however soon enough GuMiho struck at the heart of his opponent with a relatively scary drop - to which FanTaSy responded with showing his three Ravens, prompting his opponent to pick up and hurry back home. The underdog then raced across the map almost off instinct alone, catching the Towel Terran asleep at the wheel as he poured out Auto Turrets to force the lift on his third CC & dug in with his army to block it off from coming back anytime soon. FanTaSy held the line for a few too many minutes as his lead grew more and more insurmountable, to the point where by the time GuMiho's third CC finally landed again & started mining he was down over 20 SCVs. The Towel Terran then tried going for Mech one last time but his opponent was never going to let him catch back up, marching his significantly better army across the map and controlling it perfectly to knock him out of the GSL.
Aside from a Liberator that got a little too much done at the start on Cyber Forest, the kickoff to this series was pretty uneventful with both players setting themselves up for a later game. Once again FanTaSy kept showing us his Bio while Armani decided to lean on Ling Bane Hydra in order to stabilize and grow on the map. After a particularly successful runby, the Zerg found himself significantly up in workers while almost directly proportionally lower in army supply, resulting in the classic TvZ tug of war we all know and love. FanTaSy kept moving his army as quickly and carefully as he could to snipe bases all over the place and clear as much creep as possible - while catching rallies and defending his own bases back at home from Nydus Worms - eventually teching up into Ghosts and Nukes to more easily deal with his opponent's Ultras & prepare for the inevitable Broodlords. The Zerg, however, never found enough time or room for that matter to switch things up himself - it genuinely felt like he was playing on the back foot throughout the game due to his opponent's relentless assaults - resulting in him tapping out when his bank got utterly wrecked a few times too many & he could no longer hold a base to save his life.
I can't really explain how we got into an even longer game on New Repugnancy after the openings were BC rush versus Nydus Worm Queen Ling all in, however there can be no doubt this mess of a game was incredibly exciting to watch. FanTaSy was clearly behind after taking a little too long to clean up the initial attack, however through the power of macro both players found themselves in a decent enough position. In what would end up being the theme of this series, Armani once again managed to kill way too many SCVs with a Baneling runby, although his eagerness to then run into his opponent's bigger army was not ideal. Seeing as he found himself down in worker count for the second time this game alone, the Terran pounced on the opportunity to push into his opponent's third Hatch with his bigger army - especially because a lot of the Zerg's supply was in Corruptors - however seemingly through pure force of will Armani managed to not lose as badly as he could have, pulling off a miracle or two to stay alive while losing only one Upgrade. Throughout the rest of this map FanTaSy would keep getting his army supply up, but would then lose a bunch of SCVs to a counter attack, resulting in a push that felt constrained and forced - Armani got to Broodlords successfully this time as a result and after a crazy base trade of sorts that produced even more insanity, the Zerg finally got his win to take us into the final game of the day.
Things almost felt too perfect on Thunderbird with both players agreeing to a more "honorable" approach, with Armani going into Ling Bane Muta and FanTaSy banking on the letter M(x4). The Zerg stuck to his guns - focusing on counter attacks, killing SCVs and being mobile on the map - and the Terran did the opposite, setting up sieges on every Hatchery he could & taking the army lead once again both composition-wise and supply-wise. The last stand from Armani would be a formidable one, crushing his opponent with a beautiful surround from multiple angles, however he simply didn't have enough juice to finish the job & FanTaSy's vintage resilience came in to play soon enough after that as he rebuilt his army and focused on the task at hand. A few burrowed Banes and other such valiant efforts from the Zerg to stay alive later, the Terran marched his tougher, stronger & significantly bigger army one last time across the battlefield to secure his place in the Ro16, crushing his opponent's dreams in favor of his own.
It did happen at GuMiho's expense, but it was still nice to watch Armani and FanTaSy pull of some sick performances, was also cool to see Dear turn up to the GSL for a change.
Match of the Night - as always feel free to vote for whatever you'd like, personally I'm not sure if my lower expectations helped or not, but the fact FanTaSy figured out going Mech against Armani was a death sentence and instead played out a much more standard TvZ that turned into an epic tug of war really sealed it for me, phenomenal last series of the day in my opinion (even if it was riddled with mistakes on both sides, they were the type of games where you can sort of forgive those since both players decided to play an extremely difficult game).
Finally, here are some of my closing thoughts on each player:
Dear god, either the former GSL Champion is back or we all simultaneously hallucinated him playing at the peak of his ability for a day. In any case, this is the Dear we wanted to see last Season for the Ro16 in what was supposed to be a Group of Death not a Bunch of Meh. That said, it's incredibly hard to judge whether this Protoss is truly back online, since he admittedly only had to take care of two underdogs today so I'm looking forward to the next Round where Dear will more than likely be forced to show us how his PvP is doing and/or alternatively what it looks like when he goes up against stronger competition (though keep in mind if he's indeed firing on all cylinders there's so much potential revenge on the menu it's unreal).
FanTaSy couldn't stop apologizing in his winner's interview for the many mistakes he'd done and lower level he'd displayed (losers: take notes, this legend is showing you how a winner's brain functions). Frankly, if I were a friend of his, I'd quickly let him know no one realistically even expected him to come out of the Group today, the fact he outplayed GuMiho and survived an Armani who looked to be playing at near full potential while going for Bio himself and pulling it off marvelously is more than enough. We can always get better, it's inarguable and I'm glad to hear a pro player acknowledge he maybe dropped the ball a little, but I still think he was a bit too hard on himself. Really glad he's made it to the Ro16 again, hopefully this time things go better (though I can't lie, last time FanTaSy got to participate in the easiest joke of a Group possible, so it might be much harder for him to move on this time around & he'll have to be ready for war accordingly if he wants to extend his run).
Armani got to play against not Maru and not INnoVation today, what a difference more manageable opponents make, eh? I wouldn't even say he played necessarily better than last Season, especially after the mishap against Dear, but it was nice to see the Zerg show his vs Mech prowess and then take the fight to his opponent on those last few maps. On a side note, I'm starting to think outside of ZvT he might be a significantly weaker player - and thus, this can be considered a slight overperformance - but regardless there's something about his play I can't help but find interesting, so I'm looking forward to seeing more of him next year.
GuMiho got almost completely dumpstered tonight, which was shocking to witness and the worst part is that I don't even think he generally played that badly. That said, when people ask you to name the best Terran players in the world his name gets brought up at worst around 4th or 5th - losing to Armani and FanTaSy pretty convincingly is not acceptable when you put things in that sort of context. It's certainly within GuMiho's capabilities to reinvent himself and come back stronger, however his chance of getting to the Global Final is slipping almost infinitely out of reach - or may as well be considered gone, considering how many top players have seemingly been "revived" this Season. Here's hoping this is just a temporary setback for the Towel Terran since he is one of the most creative and stylistically distinct players we have & seeing him perform at this level is definitely a net loss for the entire competition.
Keep in mind these are just my observations. As always, if you think differently let everyone know why in the comments below. Catch you on Saturday for the final Group H, where it's going to be Jin Air's Trap looking to extend his streak of success in GSL against good old unpredictable Patience, a random Zerg player doing his best Solar impersonation and finally some smiley guy called Liquid TaeJa. Thanks as always for reading & see you when I see you! (: -M
RBI has stopped printing Rs 2,000 denomination notes in a bid to address concerns over money laundering and fake currency notes in circulation. According to an RTI reply by the RBI, The Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Private LTD has not printed a single banknote of Rs 2,000 denomination in this financial year. -Business Line The RBI issued guidelines on ‘on tap’ authorisation of payment systems, including minimum networth criteria for different players, with an aim to encourage innovation and competition. In a circular, the RBI said it has been decided to offer on-tap authorisation for Bharat Bill Payment Operating Unit (BBPOU), Trade Receivables Discounting System (TReDS) and White Label ATMs (WLAs). -Financial Express Amid instances of deaths and also a suicide of depositors, troubled PMC Bank's administrator met RBI brass including Governor Shaktikanta Das today. "It was assured that the bank will make all efforts to safeguard the interests of depositors and other stakeholders," the statement from J B Bhoria, who was placed as the administrator last month by RBI, said. -Economic Times The Supreme Court, today, agreed to an urgent hearing on a plea seeking directions for interim protective measures for insuring around 15 lakh people whose money is blocked in the scam-hit PMC Bank. -Business Line Credit growth at Indian banks has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years, the latest RBI data shows, as slowing domestic consumption weighs on demand. This adds to the challenges facing Central Government with India's economy at its weakest levels in six years. -Economic Times Banking operations could be hit on October 22 owing to the proposed strike by trade union organisations, Bank of Baroda said in a regulatory filing today. . The strike has been called by the AlBEA and the Bank Employees Federation of and BEFI for opposing the consolidation of 10 PSBs into 4. -NDTV News Bank of Baroda, today, said financial, administrative and other functions of its MD & CEO is to be looked after by respective executive directors till the appointment of new head. P S Jayakumar ceased to be the bank's MD & CEO with effect from October 12, 2019 upon expiry of his term. -Economic Times Federal Bank net profit in the second quarter of the fiscal shot up by over 56% to Rs 416.70 crore. Its net profit was ₹266.04 crore in the same period a year ago. -Business Line SBI has approached the Department of Financial Services, seeking its intervention to end the impasse over a resolution plan for home financier Dewan Housing Finance Corporation LTD, people with knowledge of the matter told. -Economic Times Indian Overseas Bankhas signed up with Magicbricks to e-auction 500 plus re-possessed properties worth more than Rs 800 crore. The e-auction will be carried out in two phases in October. -Business Standard Mastercard along with legendary cricketer Mahendra Singh Dhoni launched a nationwide initiative to accelerate the acceptance and adoption of digital payments. Titled 'Team Cashless India', the initiative brings consumers and merchants to the forefront of the digital payments dialogue. -Business Line There was a marked slowdown in commercial credit growth in the quarter ending June 2019 along with a marginal deterioration in asset quality, according to the seventh edition of TransUnion CIBIL-SIDBI MSME Pulse Report. The total on-balance sheet commercial lending exposure in India declined to ₹63.8 lakh crores in June 2019 from ₹65.5 lakh crores in March 2019. This slowdown comes to post a sustained quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) steady growth performance in the commercial credit segment over the last few years. -Business Line China will remove business restrictions for foreign banks, securities companies and fund management firms, a cabinet meeting chaired by premier Li Keqiang today said, according to state television. -Economic Times Trade negotiations between India and the US are going well and will conclude sooner than expected, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said. -Economic Times Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that the Indian public sector banks had the "worst phase" under the combination of former PM Manmohan Singh and RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. -Economic Times Arundhati Bhattacharya, the past chairman of SBI, today, said there is a need to create a special cadre for compliance and risk management at every banks, given the issues lenders are facing and rued that unfortunately HR is the most neglected side of banking. The comments come at a time when banks' lending practices have been repeatedly put to question in many alleged scams, an increased attention from the regulator and investigating agencies and very high quantum of dud loans. -Economic Times India's fuel demand fell to its lowest in more than two years in September, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) showed. Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, totaled 16.01 million tonnes - its lowest since July 2017 - down about 0.3% compared with the same month last year. -Economic Times USD/INR 71.43 Sensex 38598.99 (+92.9) Nifty 11464(+35.7)
I’ve railed at various times about the creation of State Monopolies to distribute cannabis. I’ve experience with them in my professional life - notably power, and interacting within the booze regime in Alberta, where I’d acquired an importation license to import tequila and craft beer from the states. It seems the right to put all of it in one place, and explain why these Zombies of the State are an anachronism in the 21st century: utterly vulgar for consumers, businesses, investors, and ultimately......the citizen. When the pure, naked, and bottomless greed of governments across the country rolled cannabis into their purview, I wrote a couple of nastygrams to my elected representatives. And with utter predictability - I got nothing but condescending palp in response. Not once did they attempt to address my concerns. We’ve got a real life examples of outcomes in the superior customer service yous gettins from Ontario Cannabis Storage. Fed up? Want to take your business elsewhere? You’re fucked. And they have the stones to be angry about the fact you’re angry. Don’t you know they’re doing their best? You ungrateful slob. Besides, they were lied to by the criminal elements. Here's my concerns about State Monopolies inserting themselves into peoples lives. State Monopolies create economic distortions Price Controls have been around for millennia. And they’ve been useless since the first Roman Emperor tried ‘em. Centrally planned economies have been largely phased out of existence, as people will simply act in their own best interests. If they find a price too high, they seek alternatives. And having a nation state setting prices simply fucks up the economy (see Marxism & Maoism for how this sort of thing turns out). The feds ‘discovered’ this distortion when ramping taxes on cigarettes, effectively setting a floor price for tobacco. At a certain level of taxation, people avoid the system entirely. While tobacco companies complained about lax enforcement, it’s easy to pick on tobacco btw, and their complaints were largely ignored. That they don’t have many allies anywhere didn’t help. But it was found that the propagation of illegal smokes - smuggled in, avoiding excise taxes - went big when the price per package went above a certain level ($15). The federal government backed off and lowered taxes to try and capture the tax leakage they saw. State Monopolies institutionalize inefficiency People organize their affairs as they see fit. Some are willing to pay for a premium product. Some are fine with a no-name for less cost. What governs the allocation of resources in the economy is efficiency. Production levels correspond to demand, and those companies that deliver a product within a price range sell stuff. Those who produce this given product - but for much higher cost than competitors - will not sell their goods. In the case of State Monopolies: ‘it costs what it costs’. There is no mechanism to react to changes in the market, and adds a fixed component that lives independently of consumer choice, and it’s value within it. Given that LP’s have been selling to consumers directly for years - tell me why physical handling is required - where an LP must ship from it’s loading dock to a State Warehouse - where it is unpacked - and shipped back to an LP’s store for resale. Think about that. Manitoba isn’t building a warehouse. Why would they? All they need to do is track and measure their take. Anything beyond that is pure waste. Harberger's triangle describes this well with respect to taxes. But even with taxes aside, the cost of the monopoly itself is simply dead weight burden to society. And price discrimination is emergent in jurisdictions - across the value chain. We see this in differentials between medical and recreational cannabis, as well as in wholesale and retail margins across the country. Need something a little less esoteric? How about……. State Monopolies mute the price signal The price signal is the only thing we have to determine scarcity. Typically, more scarce = higher cost. Because that’s the signal to the individual about availability, producers to increase or decrease production, and for the whole lot of them to decide how to allocate capital. You know…to actually make purchasing decisions with their own money. Monopolies install cost that has zero value add. The Reactive Nature of Regulation Regulatory is reactive. Some undesirable activity is taking place. Regulators move to stop it. Regulatory thought in the early ’90s was to establish some guard rails, and get out of the fucking way. A ‘light touch’ as it were. Sadly this didn’t last long. Bureaucratic empires can’t get built with that kind of thinking, and as is extremely well known in politics: a politician without a budget is nothing. But, but…..you say….the free market needs regulation molly. Really. The capitalists will pillage the village and make servants of us all in the absence of regulation. Of course I agree. The rule of law needs laws to be ruled by. And, there are some very bad actors out there in the world. Natch. Hence why there is prisons. But the debacle of the global financial crisis in 2008 showed us the folly of the tautology that regulation keeps bad things in check. You remember the crisis right? The one where banks were selling bags of dogshit to each other, adding more dogshit to the bag with every transaction? There were 16 governmental agencies with some 30,000+ employees responsible for regulating the North American financial sector. And they were as culpable and as complicit as the people trading the bags of dogshit. If you disagree with that - and at the very least - we can say there was regulatory failure, and policy failure. And there is no cost to them for either. There’s now 47,000 of them. This isn’t a an inverted paean about regulation. Only a statement that regulatory needs to be crisp, effective, and as efficient as possible. State Monopolies obscure and distort markets - adding to regulatory burden to mitigate the distortions. Which complicates incremental regulations, leading to regulations metastasizing, and unbounded cost expansion. The Experience in Power Much of my view comes from watching the interplay of regulators with local monopolies and power providers. They are all camps armed with lawyers, who conduct their wars in the battlefield of the courts. With costs ultimately landing on the ratepayer. Inefficiency abounds. I could provide examples for days. But since rant will take days (kinda like this one), take my word for it. Or google “electricity regulation and inefficiency” if you’ve got a decade or so. Alrighty then molly. So you’re pissed off. Surely there’s a need for State Monopolies. You want to privatize the Air Force dickhead? No, I don’t. And there is good reason for State Monopolies. And it’s easily defined. It’s also the sole reason for them to exist. Provision of Public Goods A public good is something that makes sense to monopolize. Think of electricity transmission. If there were multiple suppliers each needing their own wires to your home, you’d never be able to see the sky but for wires in your back yard. The police, firefighters, land for public parks. You get the idea. A natural monopoly occurs when there is benefit (or cost) to society - but the cost (or benefit) is attributable to no specific individual. Try to put together an argument that cannabis is a public good. Or that State Monopolies are a good idea in any private sector product provision for that matter. If you’ve lasted this long: Congratulations. And I hope you’re as pissed off as myself at the farce of State Monopolies muscling in on private business. But TheCannalysts are a group that provides investor education and analysis and such on an industry. So….I’ve left the single best and most compelling reason why investors should loathe State Monopolies for last: State Monopolies create winners, and losers Nifty little craft outfit somewhere that you’ve heard about somewhere? Want to try a novel strain you’ve heard some trusted friends tell you about? Uh oh. Unless it’s listed by the State Monopoly in your province - not a chance bub. Unless you have some smuggled (mailed or driven) by a person from another province of course - who also would be breaking the law by sending it to you. But only after purchasing it from their own State Monopoly. Small business is at a natural disadvantage by not having the resources to negotiate with 13 State Monopolies - who have minimum supply requirements, different logistical demands, and probably different packaging standards emerge over time. LP’s need supply deals - rather than putting product into stores that deal with supply demand every single purchase. For a store desiring to open for niche products or suppliers - they have to compete with other stores to buy product - rather than negotiate directly. the State Monopoly owns the listings, and owns the right to say who goes where. BC is actually coming out on the shortest end of the stick here because they have a robust and varied market to begin with. And there is no way state monopolies will carry 30,000 SKUs (at least for a decade). Indeed, there is no reason for them to carry a single one. They do not have to warehouse. They do not have to confiscate online sales. They do not have to block entrepreneurs and deny people with dreams of business ownership from being able to open a store. It is a vulgar expression of the power of the State - and contrary to the very essence of freedom of choice, and freedom of actions around a legal product in a free society. Tax something to reflect societal harm? Ok. Regulate for reasons of public safety? Fine. Put in controls to track supply chain and quality? Hip. But tell me who an adult of legal age can purchase a legal product from, and which legal supplier I choose to give my money to? Fuck off. And get the fuck out of my wallet while you’re at it.
The RBI is on alert after the National Investigation Agency (NIA) found fake currency notes in circulation. Sources said that all measures have been put in place to detect use of fake notes after NIA shared information that fake notes we're being pumped in from Pakistan. “We are alert to the situation. We have a robust system in place for detecting fake notes," said a banking industry official. -Business Line The RBI governor Shaktikanta Das today met heads of PSBs and took stock of the current liquidity situation, particularly with regard to NBFCs, said the chief of a state-owned bank. The banker said that the governor also stressed on the need for quicker transmission and said that it is required to give a push to economic growth. According to the banker, the conversation with Das was centred around five broad themes of liquidity, credit offtake, small and medium businesses, stressed loans and transmission of rates. -Livemint The RBI asked banks to put in place a board-approved policy for making investment in Infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs). An InvIT is a collective investment scheme, which enables direct investment of money from individual and institutional investors in infrastructure projects and return out of their investment. Banks and insurance companies have not been investing in InvITs because of regulatory restrictions. -Moneycontrol.com Finance Minister Niramala Sitharaman defended the government’s policies after her husband Parakala Prabhakar attributing the economic slowdown to the Government policies. In the article, Prabhakar said the BJP should adopt the Rao-Singh economic model, which paved the way for liberalisation of the economy, instead of “critiquing the Nehruvian socialism”. -Business Standard The AIBEA has urged the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to expedite the appointments of employee representative directors in PSBs Boards. The posts of employee and officer representative directors have been vacant in all the banks for the past 5 years and the appointments have to be expedited to dispel the apprehension among bank employees that Government is avoiding to have the employee representative on the Board, C.H. Venkatachalam, General Secretary, AIBEA said in a letter to the Finance Minister. -Business Line ICICI Bank has launched a new Fixed Deposit (FD) scheme - FD Health. The scheme offers FD with a health benefit through a critical illness coverage. Customers will be offered a complimentary insurance cover of Rs 1 lakh. -Business Line Karnataka Bank today reported a 5.3% fall in net profit at Rs105.91 crore for the second quarter ended September of the current fiscal as bad loans increased marginally. The bank had posted a net profit of Rs111.86 crore in the corresponding July-September quarter of the previous fiscal ended March 2019. -Livemint SBI chairman Rajnish Kumar today said the Enforcement Directorate and other central law enforcement agencies should restrict to attaching personal assets while investigating a promoter and keep off the Co which is under the insolvency process. -Economic Times Andhra Bank will cut the MCLR by 10 basis points across tenors from today. The bank will decrease its MCLR and RLLR (repo-linked lending rate) from October 15 and November 1, respectively, it said in a regulatory filing. -Moneycontrol.com The Department of Post, through a circular on Monday, announced that it has launched mobile banking for its savings account customers. According to the circular, the facility will be available from October 15 for all the post office savings account holders of the CBS post offices. -Economic Times The IMF has reduced India's growth forecast for FY20 by 90 basis points to 6.1%, down from the 7% estimate in July. Meanwhile, the growth forecast for FY 21, which stood at 7.2% in July, was slashed by 20 bps to 7%. The downward revision in India's growth forecast by the IMF reflects a weaker-than-expected outlook for domestic demand. -Moneycontrol.com The negative core Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation and de-growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) are a disturbing sign, causing serious concerns about the decelerating economy, according to SBI's economic research report ‘Ecowrap’. -Business Line Facebook officially moved forward with its plans on Monday to create a new digital currency called Libra. The Libra Association, the non-profit that will govern the currency, officially signed on 21 charter members on Monday at the organisation’s inaugural meeting in Geneva. Originally the Libra Association had 27 potential members, but several companies dropped out in recent days, including Visa, Mastercard and PayPal. –Business Line Wipro beat estimates to post a 35% increase in net income to Rs 2,556 crore during the second quarter of the current fiscal. -Business Line Former Union Minister P Chidambaram will be arrested by the Enforcement Directorate tomorrow after a special court in Delhi agreed to the agency's request for the custodial interrogation of Chidambaram who has been in Tihar jail since September 5 in the INX Media case. -NDTV News Countries negotiating the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have now decided on a final 10-day window to bilaterally sort out pending differences in the mega trade deal, after which the leaders of the 16 nations will step in. Beginning Monday, India has started talks with other nations on an “automatic trigger safeguard mechanism” that ensures higher tariffs will kick in once imports reach a threshold while also pushing to finalise the levels of tariff reduction it will allow for other RCEP members. -Business Standard India's trade deficit narrowed slightly to $10.86-billion in September from $14.95 billion a year ago, the trade ministry said in a statement today. This was largely achieved with the help of lower oil imports. -Economic Times LIC has further increased its dominance in India’s life insurance market with a 6% jump market share between April to September. The insurance giant’s share in the overall pie now stands at 72% in a market where several state-run life insurers are increasingly outdoing their private competitors in getting new businesses. -Economic Times Hit by a double blow of losing a job in Jet Airways and withdrawal restrictions in Punjab & Maharashtra Cooperative (PMC) Bank where he had kept his lifelong savings of ₹90 lakh, a stressed Mumbaikar, 51-year-old Sanjay Gulati, died of cardiac arrest on Monday. -Livemint In the wake of the scam at Punjab & Maharashtra Cooperative (PMC) Bank, the All-India Reserve Bank Employees Association today suggested ending the dual jurisdiction of urban cooperatives and bringing them under RBI jurisdiction. The union also said RBI should carry out onsite supervision of all cooperative banks instead of the present annual offsite supervision. -Moneycontrol.com USD/INR 71.53 Sensex 38506.09(+291.62) Nifty 11428.3 (+87.15)
Unified Payments Interface (UPI) may soon be available in Singapore and UAE as NPCI looks to expand globally. NPCI is eyeing international markets and will launch a pilot project in 6-9 months, Dilip Asbe, CEO and MD, NPCI, told. However, the organisation will need to secure approval of the Governments of both India and the countries that it looks to expand to, Dilip Asbe added. UPI is one of the fastest adopted payments systems in the world. -Financial Express With a view to bringing in better regulation of core investment companies, a working group set up by the RBI has suggested that the number of layers of such firms in a group should be restricted to two. “As such, any CIC within a group shall not make an investment through more than a total of two layers of CICs, including itself,” the Working Group to review the regulatory and supervisory framework for CICs in its report has said as this would facilitate simplification and transparency of group structures. -Business Line Canara Bank's July-September quarter profit grew 21.8% year-on-year, driven by a decline in provisions and higher other income. Profit during the quarter increased to Rs 365 crore from Rs 299.5 crore in the corresponding period of the last fiscal. Net interest income in Q2FY20 fell 4.6% to Rs 3,130 crore compared to the same period last year, with loan growth of 4.8% YoY. Asset quality of the bank improved marginally with gross NPA as a percentage of gross advances falling 9bps QoQ to 8.68% and net NPA declining 20bps QoQ to 5.15% in Q2FY20. -Moneycontrol.com Corporation Bank registered a net profit of Rs 129.76 crore in the second quarter of 2019-20 as against a profit of Rs 103.01 crore in the corresponding period of 2018-19, recording a growth of 25.96%. -Business Line The RBI has imposed a monetary penalty of ₹5 crore on Gujarat-based Mehsana Urban Co-operative Bank for contravention of the directions issued by it on ‘Loans and Advances to Directors, Relatives and Firms/Concerns in which they are Interested’, and non-compliance with the Master Directions on KYC. -Business Line IDBI Bank has declared Vijay Mallya a wilful defaulter and issued a public notice today with his old passport size photograph for default on payments worth Rs 1,566 crore in respect to Kingfisher Airlines. IDBI Bank NPA Management Group in Mumbai issued a public notice about wilful defaulter with the now defunct Kingfisher Airlines as the borrower and Vijay Mallya as the director and guarantor. -Economic Times Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL) has urged its 2 top lenders to help lift a moratorium on repayments so that the stressed mortgage lender could begin repaying its depositors. In letters to the SBI and Union Bank of India, DHFL has sought the lenders’ help to resume repayments to depositors, a process now on hold after a Bombay High Court order. -Economic Times Moody's Investors Service today placed YES Bank’s foreign currency issuer rating of ‘Ba3’ under review for downgrade, citing weak financial performance in the September quarter. -Economic Times In a setback to Nirav Modi, a UK court today rejected a new bail application of the fugitive diamond merchant, who is fighting extradition to India on charges of nearly USD 2 billion PNB fraud and money laundering case. -Business Line New Zealand’s Minister of State for Trade Damien O’Connor has said that his country would love to see India as part of the RCEP agreement and all fifteen countries had agreed to work with New Delhi to sort out its sensitivities before a final agreement is reached. -Business Line Fitch Solutions today raised India’s fiscal deficit forecast to 3.6% of the GDP for this fiscal year, from 3.4% previously, due to weak revenue collections resulting from sluggish economic growth and Government’s sweeping corporate tax rate cut. -Business Line Public-sector general insurance companies which are slated to be merged have urged the Government for fund infusion before the amalgamation. According to top officials of 2 public sector general insurance firms, the companies in their communication with the department of financial services have highlighted the need for immediate recapitalisation in order to maintain the regulatory solvency ratio and wipe out losses. -Business Standard Within days of Government approving a relief package for the ailing corporation, BSNL has rolled out a voluntary retirement scheme for its employees, and said it expects 70,000-80,000 personnel to opt for it leading to savings of about Rs 7,000 crore in wage bill. BSNL Chairman and MD P K Purwar told PTI that the scheme will be open between Nov 4 and December 3, and that instructions have already been given to field units to inform employees about the VRS offering. -Economic Times Union of IT and ITES Employees (UNITE) today said that it has submitted a memorandum to the Commissioner of Labour, Tamil Nadu regarding the recent announcements by IT firms on reduction of workforce. In a statement, UNITE said that Indian IT majors Cognizant, Infosys, and Capgemini have announced mass retrenchments in the name of “2020 fit for growth plan”, “role rationalisation” and “restructuring”. “This act of the IT majors is against the law of the land and it is illegal. But the government of India and Tamil Nadu are indifferent to these practices,” it added. -The Hindu USD/INR 70.98 Sensex 40469.78 (+221.55) Nifty 11966.05 (+48.85)
BIS says there are $1 quadrillion in derivatives right now on earth. The last time there was this much in derivatives was before 2008. The banks made sure they can take your money if they crash in the last budget bill passed by U.S. How much is $1,000,000,000,000.00? If one dollar = one second. one million dollars = 12.5 days one billion dollars = 30 years one trillion dollars = 30,000 years one quadrillion dollars = 30 million years When derivatives collapse, you will finally understand that sea level and earth temperature rises will be the least of your worries, unless a resilient high pressure block parks its ass over the mid-west this summer. Because if it does, world starvation will begin. Don't forget that the U.S. government sold off its grain reserves in the last recession.
Admittedly this comes from /collapse, so I feel almost mean picking on this (the other post I made was criticizing Bloomberg News for misusing the figure we're going to talk about). Also apparently agriculture will collapse in 50 years. But I wanted to talk with you about derivatives, because I worked with them for 6 years and I find them endlessly fascinating. The Biggest Number You'll Ever Hear One thing that is true about this (and perhaps the only thing) is that the notional value of the world's derivatives is probably the single largest money value you can meaningfully talk about in finance and economics. The world's total debt, for perspective, is about $200 trillion, or 2.86 times global GDP. If you google "derivatives quadrillion" you will get a lot of posts from people sharing our friend's view with varying degrees of breathless panic that the sheer size of this number will bring down the global economy. (Saying that it will end civilization, though, is new to me.) This quadrillion figure purports to be the notional value of the world's derivatives, and our friend is kind enough to cite the BIS, the Bank for International Settlements. The BIS is an international financial institution predating the IMF and World Bank sometimes called a "Central Bank's Bank" because it, well, settles international finances. If you've heard of the Basel Agreements (such as Basel III), which are at the core of international financial regulation, the reason they're called "Basel" is because the BIS lives in Basel, Switzerland. Anyway, one thing the BIS does is count up all those derivatives. You can see the BIS data here. Indeed, you will see an eye-wateringly large number there: $552 trillion notional value for the world's derivatives (again, compare that with $200 trillion in global debt). That is down from $710 trillion in 2013 but a far cry from one quadrillion dollars. That $552 trillion figure refers to OTC (over the counter) derivatives. There is another variety of derivatives - "listed" or "exchange-traded" derivatives. The BIS calculates an additional $63 trillion open interest in listed derivatives. Open interest is a comparable figure to notional value for listed derivatives. If you don't know what OTC and listed derivatives are, don't worry, the difference is an important part of our story that we'll get to. The BIS excludes certain types of popular listed derivatives from this total for some reason, including the kind of derivative that most people have heard of: stock options. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) provides reports on US derivatives exposure: out of $181 trillion in notional value US derivatives, $3.4 trillion are stock and commodity derivatives, so we aren't missing much. I've Got a Notion Of A Notional So what is notional value and why is it coming to kill you? Financial derivatives are about being derived from something. The something is called the underlying of the derivative. Roughly, the value of that underlying is the notional value. There are many fancy variations of derivatives, but there are three basic kinds: forwards, options, and swaps. The simplest one is a forward contract, which is just an agreement to buy something at a certain price at some point in the future. I'll give the same example I gave a few weeks ago: Say we have a forward contract for one barrel of oil. This agreement says you will buy a barrel of oil for $30 from me in three months. The notional value of this contract is $30. If oil ends up costing $31 when the contract is due, you are able to pay $30 for something worth $31. The value of the contract then is...not $30 (the notional value), not $31 (the spot price), but...$1. At the time the contract expires and you have to pay for the oil, this contract is just a coupon for $1 off on a barrel of oil. You're still obligated to pay $30 for the oil, but the derivative itself is only worth that $1 coupon. If you had wanted just the option (not the obligation) to pay, you could have bought...an option. I won't get into options because this is already really long although options are way more fun. I Just Wanna Sit Back And Unwind (My Forward Contract) You might say, "Well, Sporz, fine - the contract itself is worth $1, but I'm still obligated to pay up $30 (notional value) for the oil. So it's still relevant?" Yeah, and if you actually do hold it to maturity, you have to accept delivery of that barrel of oil and pay. But there is a way to get out of it and just pocket your $1 without actually getting a barrel of oil: Sell the contract. In fact, sell it back to the person who's giving you the oil for that $1 that it's worth (who will just rip it up, what's the point of delivering oil to himself?) Now there's no $30, just that $1 that changed hands - and nothing to do with the notional value! "Sporz, that's insane!" It is a little convoluted but it works. It works so well that the vast majority of contracts are unwound this way. You may be wondering why you would bother doing this if you didn't actually want to buy or sell oil. One answer is that you could be just speculating on the price. The other is if, say, you're an airline that wants oil, or an oil producer selling oil - you get the ability to fix the price ahead of time rather than worrying that, when you need oil the price will be sky high or rock bottom. This reduces your risk substantially. A lot more oil producers would be bankrupt now if it weren't for these handy little hedges.This is why derivatives are so important and valuable and how they can make the world safer. "But I still need oil!" Yes, but not oil in Cushing, Oklahoma. Back To The Future (Contract) "Why are we in Oklahoma, Sporz?" So, a forward contract like the one we made is an over-the-counter (OTC) derivative. OTC derivatives are nifty because you and I get together, decide on a custom price, and a custom location for delivery. The problem is that this is expensive (we're hammering out a very custom contract and I am a very expensive banker), you're dependent on me still being in business when the contract is due (I may be very expensive, but I also could be very incompetent), and if you want to get out of it, either I'm feeling nice, or you have to find someone else to take this very special contract and that can be hard. People still do this sometimes (Pemex, the Mexican national oil company, hedges using OTC oil derivatives) but you can see some problems. Futures contracts are closely related to forward contracts. The difference is that they are listed derivatives - instead of calling me up and hammering out this very custom contract, you go to a big exchange, like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and buy the contract there. The contract is completely standardized: the oil (West Texas Intermediate) gets delivered on specific dates, and at a specific place (Cushing, Oklahoma). "But I want oil in Ohio." The price of oil in Ohio is going to be pretty close to what it is in Oklahoma. (The difference is called basis risk). But close enough. So you close out your NYMEX contract and pocket your $1 and pay about $31 in Ohio for oil. Net, you still managed to pay $30. The benefit is: Because the contract is standard, many people want to buy and sell them, so you shouldn't have a hard time getting out if you want. Also, you aren't contracted with me specifically. If you want to buy, and I want to sell, the exchange will contract with us both. Your counterparty isn't me, the incompetent banker who might disappear tomorrow, but with the entire pool of buyers and sellers at the exchange. The other thing is margining and daily settlement. Obviously the exchange doesn't want to pick up the tab for me being a deadbeat if I can't pay in three months for that $31 barrel of oil. So I have to keep some amount of cash in a margin account at the exchange to cover me. Each day, the contract is settled as if I had closed it - if the price went up, I have money taken out of my account. If the price went down, money gets put in from yours. If I don't have enough money in my account, I face a margin call. (Awesome movie by the way, you should see it - ironically there is no margin call in it). If I don't make the margin call and top up the account, my position is closed immediately for being naughty. "What does this have to do with notional values?" It doesn't. It has to do with making derivatives safer (almost to the point of paranoia at times). So derivatives won't blow the world economy up like our friend thinks they might. So, how big is it? Really? So we've talked about the benefits of derivatives (being able to hedge risk), things that can make derivatives less risky (margining, daily settlement, and central clearing - we'll come back to those). And that notional value is not a good way to measure the size or risk of derivatives. So what is a good measure? One way to think about it is, if we see that notional value can vastly overstate the size of a derivative (our $30 notional, $1 value forward contract again), we can think about the market value. Our forward contract has a market value of just $1. It's also worth noting that notional value could (in rare cases) be less than the market value. If oil had risen to $90, the contract would be worth $60 - on a $30 notional. But this is rare and (for reasons I'll get to) statistically impossible for derivatives as a whole. If we go back to our favorite BIS report you'll see a figure for "Gross Market Value" which is just $15 trillion rather than the $552 trillion for OTC derivatives. That's a huge difference, I don't have to tell you - $15 trillion is a big number but not nearly as mind-boggling as half a quadrillion. This is essentially the difference between the $1 and $30 values for our forward contract. But it gets better. Let's look at our favorite OCC report, the one that talks about American derivatives. We start with that $180 trillion notional, and there's a "Gross Positive Fair Value" (this is like "Gross Market Value") of $4 trillion. So, great the US's derivatives are a lot smaller than notional would suggest too. But let's imagine that you're a bank now and you have lots of deals. Lots of these deals offset each other, though - one derivative I have with you might be worth $1M, the other might be worth -$500,000. If you or I go bust, it isn't $1.5M down the drain - just the difference, $500,000. This difference is net current credit exposure (NCCE). That NCCE is just $500 billion for the US. So out of that $4 trillion worth of derivatives out there, there's enough offsetting going on that there's only $500 billion on the hook. NCCE can change dramatically (It went up to $800 billion during the crisis) but it's pivotal to estimating the magnitude of derivatives as a potential economic risk. You just make me wanna SWAP! "So, Sporz, I was reading your favorite BIS report and I noticed you haven't talked the biggest part - $434 trillion in interest rate contracts. WHAT ARE YOU HIDING!?" Calm down! I'm getting there! The fun thing about derivatives is that they mix and match. You want a forward contract buying Euros intead of oil? You got it. An option on a commodity? Sure. An option on a future on a basket of options on a basket of stocks? Go nuts. As you may know, interest rates are kind of important in finance. Like the oil price, interest rates move, and like people sometimes want to bet on the oil price or lock in a price that they find preferable to tons of risk, people want to do this with interest rates. A lot. By any measure, interest rate derivatives are more popular than any other category of derivative. More popular than the rest of them combined, even. So it's worth talking about them. The characteristic feature of a swap is paying repeatedly for something. Our forward contract just had us pay once; a swap on oil would have me paying each month for a barrel of oil for say $30. (Like the forward contract, this is rare for crude oil - you'd rather buy a bunch of crude oil futures and pay those each month for that sweet, sweet Oklahoma oil). A typical interest rate swap will have two sides - one will pay floating, the other will receive fixed. These are called the "legs" of the swap. The floating leg will pay every three months whatever the chosen interest rate is (say, 3 month LIBOR - yes, that LIBOR) The fixed leg will pay a fixed amount over the life of the swap. This is useful because if - say - you're being paid a lot of variable rates and worried they'll crash, you can trade that out for a known fixed rate and then you are safe and happy. This is very common but swaps (like all derivatives) can get super fancy. Add in a few more legs, a collar, a call, some cross-currency risk, and now we're talkin'. Interest rate swaps are important not just because of their enormous size, but because they are OTC. Like our original forward contract, these get sketched out between counterparties and are highly customized. In the past, these had some of the problems are forward contract had - you may find it hard to get out of this swap if you want to, and you're dependent on me, your sole counterparty, to pay up and if I don't show up then you are sad, lonely, and out of a lot of money. Some of those things that make listed derivatives safer have been applied because of The Recent Unfortunateness to OTC swaps. There are now Swap Execution Facilities to, er, facilitate swaps. Specifically, swaps now have to be centrally cleared (kind of like the listed derivatives) which reduces dependency on a single counterparty. There are also margin requirements to make sure that the swap gets paid. This is intended to reduce the systemic danger of swaps blowing up. So credit. Very risk. Even if you've never thought much about interest rate swaps, you might have heard of credit default swaps. These have a fun story. Swaps have been around in bulk since the 70s; options around the same time (thank you Black-Scholes); forwards are ancient. Modern credit default swaps were invented by a lady named Blythe Masters at JPMorgan in 1994 because they were worried that Exxon wouldn't pay a debt to them because of the Exxon Valdez disaster. Credit default swaps (CDS) are usually described as insurance. They're called "swaps" in the name but they do not taste like swaps. The typical interest rate swap will see both sides make money at various points during the life of the swap (usually) and it will not be very much (remember - you make the difference between two different rates, which is unlikely to be very much). A CDS looks like this in that one side pays for protection ("protection buyer") and the other side sells it. The protection is on some debt some company owes (say, Exxon). As long as Exxon keeps paying its debts, the protection seller just keeps getting paid, and if everything is hunky dory, the protection buyer might never get paid back anything at all. If things go pear-shaped, though, the protection buyer gets to cackle with glee and sell some worthless bonds for full price to the protection seller. Then the swap ends, and the protection seller is very sad. One thing that makes this different from insurance is that I can't insure your house (unless I live there. Can I?) And I can't insure it multiple times hoping that it burns down. "Well that's creepy." Yep. It's not quite as creepy as it sounds, though. For every "I hope his house burns down" there is an equal and opposite "I hope his house stays pristeen and perfect and only lightly singed." This is not academic - there are things like The Curious Case of the CDS and the Spanish Casino in which the company was made to technically default, trigger the CDS, and go on happily. It has been described as "objectively beautiful." It made The Daily Show. No talk of CDS is complete without AIG, though. You'd think an insurer would have done better than insure the hell out of all the bad debt in the world, but that happened. I bring this up not to bury CDS but to praise it. Derivatives are tools. They can be used for good and ill. The key is to make them good rather than throw out a potentially valuable tool. The main challenge with CDS is that (unlike normal swaps) they have the potentially to blow up in a big way. For years you make a few pennies a month selling protection then one day you discover you've been protecting Lehman and then you are sad in a big way. Since 2008 CDS was changed to be more standardized (helping you get out of one if you're in trouble). They now have to have fixed coupons (and, making them even less like normal swaps, there is an upfront payment to compensate) making them similar to one another. They also have margining and central clearing now. The goal here being entirely "Let's not let these derivative blow the world up, shall we?" Oh, and Blythe Masters (inventopopularizer of CDS) went on after inventing these things to prank the California energy market and is doing stuff with bitcoin now. Bon voyage. So long, and thanks for all the derivatives So this is incredibly long but I've had my thoughts on derivative percolating for a while and I wanted to illuminate some of it. So we covered how notional value vastly overstates the economic relevance of derivatives; we illustrated it with a forward contract; talked about how certain innovations in the listed market make derivatives less fragile; and discussed how those innovations have been applied to certain interest and credit derivatives since The Great Unfortunateness. I do want an excuse to talk about mortgage backed securities and stuff because those are fun too. "Wait, you owe me a barrel of oil!" Dammit.
Sensex, Nifty scale fresh record highs; bank, auto stocks lead
NEW DELHI: The season of record highs is back on D-Street. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit fresh record highs on Wednesday within half hour of opening trade led by gains in banking and auto stocks. Hopes of a possible rate cut by the RBI along with firm cues from the global markets kept market buoyant today. The mood was further bolstered by strengthening rupee which was trading 13 paise higher in the following sustained inflows by foreign institutional investors. At around 9:30 am, the BSE sensex was up 168.80 points, or 0.43 per cent at 39,225.45. While NSE Nifty rallied 43.65 points, or 0.37 per cent at 11,756.85. Among Nifty stocks, 32 stocks advanced while 18 declined. In the Sensex pack, 23 stocks traded in the green while seven in the red. Tata Steel topped the leaderboard surging, 1.61 per cent, as S&P Global Ratings revised Tata Steel’s outlook to positive on expectations of stable steel prices, reduced chances of acquiring bankrupt Bhushan Power & Steel and the divestment of its low margin European business. The index made merry led by strong contribution from banking stocks such as HDFC BankNSE 0.17 %, Kotak Bank, IndusInd BankNSE 2.30 % ..
The Department of Financial Services has asked heads of all PSBs to initiate the process of reforming their boards in line with governance changes announced by finance minister as part of the mega banking reform package. The letter asked the banks to form a risk management committee, and to combine the nomination and remuneration committees. -Economic Times The Government approved Rs 9,300 crore fund infusion in IDBI Bank to help improve the bank's capital base and turn it profitable. -Econonic Times Indian Bank expects to complete the merger with Allahabad Bank by the end of current fiscal, Indian Bank MD Padmaja Chunduru told. -Business Line According to a report from Credit Suisse, meaningful cost synergies from PSB mergers are unlikely, given the limited flexibility on restructuring and rationalisation. -Business Line Former finance minister P Chidambaram was remanded to 2 more days of CBI custody by a Delhi court in the INX Media corruption case. He will remain in the custody till Sep 5, as the Supreme Court ordered earlier in the day. -Business Line The gross bad loans of banks are expected to come down marginally to Rs 9.1 lakh crore by the end of the current financial year, according to a study by Assocham-Crisil. Indian banks' gross NPAs stood at Rs 9.4 lakh crore as on March 31, 2019, said the report. -Business Line. The shipyard controlled by Anil Ambani is facing the prospect of bankruptcy after failing to get creditors’ approval for restructuring Rs 7,000 crore of debt, people familiar with the matter said. India’s bankruptcy tribunal will consider putting Reliance Naval & Engineering Ltd. in bankruptcy on Wednesday as no new repayment plan was submitted after lenders led by IDBI Bank rejected an earlier offer in July, the news source said. -Economic Times The BSE benchmark Sensex crashed nearly 770 points and the NSE Nifty tumbled over 225 points on Sep 3 due to panic sell-offs across the board as investors fretted over deepening economic crisis and ever-lasting global trade tussle. A slew of recent macroeconomic data on GDP, core sectors and auto sales are pointing towards a deepening economic rout in the country. -The Hindu USD/INR 72.39 Sensex 36562.91(-769.88) Nifty 10797.9 (-225.35)
Nifty likely to trade in 11,600-11,900 till Budget
NEW DELHI: There could be some consolidation going ahead, but the trend is likely to remain strong till the time 11,600 is not breached by the Nifty, according to technical analysts. Stocks like Tata MotorsNSE 1.14 %, MajescoNSE 1.12 %, Canara BankNSE -0.23 %, HDFC LifeNSE 1.83 %, SBI, Bajaj FinservNSE 0.46 % and Info Edge are likely to move up as per the charts. Where are We? The expiry week remained marginally in favour of bulls since the benchmark indices ended the .. What is in Store? At this juncture, the Nifty has formed an intermediate swing high of 11,911. Also, the daily chart of Bank Nifty depicts a ‘Shooting Star’ candlestick pattern which is a reversal one and that too exactly at 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the previous move. Thus, there could be some consolidation or profit booking going ahead. But the trend is likely to remain strong till the time 11,600 is not breached by the Nifty. On the downside, the index has .. Nifty likely to trade in 11,600-11,900 till Budget
Investor sentiment is shifting to Europe as elections across the EU and the potential rise of populist parties give traders another thing to worry about in a region already shaken up by central bank policies, potential U.S. tariffs and Brexit. The results are particularly important in Italy, where the performance of the coalition parties could heavily influence budget talks with the bloc and spook Italian bonds and equities. Gains for their ideological peers across the continent might also hurt the pound and the euro - which is languishing near a two-year low against the dollar - by increasing the chances of a hard Brexit and making it more difficult for proponents of closer European ties. DJIA futures fall more than 250 points EU elections, Brexit drama and the usual U.S.-China tensions are rattling U.S. stock index futures, with Dow and the S&P 500 down 1% and Nasdaq off by 1.5%. A flurry of U.S economic reports are also on tap, including the latest weekly jobless claims data, a flash reading of manufacturing and services PMI figures for May, as well as new home sales for April. In corporate news, Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HPQ) and Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU) are all set to report their earnings for the first quarter. Markets assess Modi re-election Official data from India's Election Commission is showing Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party set to win more than 340 seats available in the lower house of parliament, well over the 272 needed for a majority. It's a historic back-to-back victory in India's general election, allowing Modi to push ahead with reforms to combat unemployment and rural distress that have persisted during his five years in power. The broad Nifty index rose 1.4% to historic highs on the news, but gave back gains towards the end of the session, closing down 0.7%. May prepares resignation Theresa May's job is hanging by a thread after Andrea Leadsom, a high-profile pro-Brexit Cabinet minister, quit on Wednesday. Pound investors are bailing out of the currency - down another 0.4% overnight to $1.2612 - amid increasing uncertainty about who will be running the country and who will handle further negotiations with the EU. The Times reported that May would name a date for her departure tomorrow, but would remain as prime minister while her successor is elected in a two-stage process. Contentious shareholder meeting Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) executives are expecting a tense meeting with shareholders today, as the bank’s tumbling share price and growing backlog of scandals place the board firmly in the firing line. A UBS downgrade on Monday sent shares to record lows, heaping pressure on the embattled German lender to trim its investment banking division following the collapse of merger talks with Commerzbank (OTCPK:CRZBY). Negative publicity in recent years also includes settlements with the DOJ, management reshuffles, weak earnings and constant restructuring. Cyber attack downgrade Moody’s has slashed its rating outlook on Equifax (NYSE:EFX) from stable to negative, marking the first time cybersecurity issues have been cited as the reason for a downgrade. The company took a $690M first-quarter charge for its massive 2017 breach of consumer data, representing an estimate for settling ongoing class action cases, as well as potential federal and state regulatory fines. The decision is significant because investors increasingly look to ratings firms and insurance companies to adequately predict the longer-term fallout of some of the biggest breaches, a difficult task given the relative lack of historical data. EFX -1.5% premarket. Amazon emotional wearable coming soon? Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is developing a voice-activated wearable device that can recognize human emotions, according to Bloomberg. The wrist-worn gadget is described as a health and wellness product in internal documents, although it's unclear how far along the project is, or if it will ever become a commercial device. It's a collaboration between Lab126, the hardware development group behind Amazon’s Fire Phone and Echo smart speaker, and the Alexa voice software team. Ending political ad sale commissions Once seen as a growth area, political ads are now viewed within Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) as more of a headache. Senior leaders at the company have debated whether it should cease running political ads entirely, but CEO Mark Zuckerberg made the final call to stay in the business, though changes will be made to how it operates. The tech giant has now stopped paying commissions to employees who sell political ads - making its ad-buying portal largely self-serve - ahead of election campaigns for 2020. Long grounding for 737 MAX Aviation regulators from 30 countries are meeting today in Dallas to discuss progress in fixing the software of Boeing's (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX. However, the closed-door meeting, originally described by FAA officials as a way for the agency to secure an international stamp of approval, is now shaping up largely as an information sharing exercise. Ahead of the gathering, acting FAA chief Daniel Elwell said he couldn't predict when the MAX fleet would be back in the air, stressing that the return to flight would be driven by analysis rather than the calendar. "If you said October, I wouldn’t even say that" was a realistic deadline at this point, he declared, because "we haven’t finished determining exactly what the training requirements will be." What else is happening... Recent trade war escalation showed how sensitive Chinese companies are to adverse events, writes contributor Independent Trader. FOMC minutes show patient stance 'for some time,' dig into 'transitory' inflation effects. Citi next to slash Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target; UBS lowers PT on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). As concerns grow, Amazon (AMZN) shareholders reject facial recognition ban. Tariff inversions? Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) eyes Kazakh plant. U.S. judge approves PG&E (NYSE:PCG) $105M wildfire assistance fund. Infrastructure stocks stumble after Trump torpedoes meeting with Democrats. Wednesday's Key Earnings Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) -11.9% on slimming gross margins. Target (NYSE:TGT) +7.8% as digital sales skyrocketed 42%. Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong -1.6%. China -1.4%. India -0.8%. In Europe, at midday, London -1.5%. Paris -1.7%. Frankfurt -1.8%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -1%. S&P -1.1%. Nasdaq -1.5%. Crude -1.6% to $60.41. Gold +0.2% to $1276.50. Bitcoin -3.3% to $7628. Ten-year Treasury Yield -5 bps to 2.35% Today's Economic Calendar 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims 9:45 PMI Composite Flash 10:00 New Home Sales 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory 11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey 1:00 PM Fed's Bostic Speech 1:00 PM Fed's Barkin Speech 1:00 PM Fed's Maly Speech 1:00 PM Fed's Kaplan Speech
Margins for Nifty Future: Margin actually varies from broker to broker. While most of the stockbrokers will ask you Rs.55,000 for 1 lot (75 shares) to open a positional trade in nifty future.If you are an intraday trader then you will require only Rs. 16,500 to trade 1 lot of nifty future (using bracket order/cover order). But positions must be squared off on the trading day itself or it will At the current Bank Nifty futures lot size of 40, 1190 points per year can fetch 1190 x 40 = Rs. 47600 per lot. If a trader can trade at least 10 lots, i.e, 400 Bank Nifty, he can easily earn 1190 x 40 x 10 = Rs. 4,76,000 per year. As per current Zerodha margin, a trader needs only Rs. 9,70,636 margin for trading 10 lots on NIFTY. So its 49% Bank Nifty's imp levels for tomorrow are 22049 and 21929. Suppose if Bank Nifty opens above 22000 tomorrow, it may go up with the support of 21929 or trendline. And suppose if Banknifty breaks the 21929 support, then Banknifty could go down to the trendline I drew. Banknifty could take a reversal from the trendline I drew. In other words, this means that the lot of Bank Nifty has increased by 25% after July 2020. (Source: NSE Circular) Let us understand what it means with an example. Assume, if a particular strike Price of Bank Nifty Option was Price at 50 units of Premium. Here, the margin required under the old format was = 50 * 20 = Rs. 1,000. Bank Nifty futures has a lot size of 40 units per contract for which an initial margin of Rs. 62000 is required which is approximately 8.15% of the total contract value of Rs. 7,60,000 (40 x 19000) on Oct 7th, 2016 i.e. we have to deposit an initial margin of approx Rs. 62,000 to initiate a long or short position in bank nifty future and carry
Bank Nifty Futures Trading Strategy - Part 1 - Basics ...
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