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Is there such a thing as "alt season"? Was there ever?
I had some requests to post this from the Daily to a separate post: This post is going to discuss alts, but only in the context of their ratios, and contains useful information for those who are trading BTC against alts either short or long, with the objective of acquiring more BTC. I made a spreadsheet of the top 10 alts, leaving out USDT and BNB. The dataset I used is the all time historical data from CMC for each coin. I am posting some conclusions from it comparing their BTC ratios over a long term The tl;dr:
every alt checked has a median negative return in terms of its BTC ratio (even the ones with lifetime BTC ratio gains);
every alt shows ~80 to 87% loss of BTC ratio from all time high (BSV is an outlier. Do you really think it won't keep falling?);
The above two points are related, and taken together mean that, on average, each day you are more likely than not to lose BTC value in every alt examined;
as a corollary from the above, the fact that some alts haven't given up 100% of their BTC gains means that the days they do increase, they increase disproportionately, but not all alts do this, and none of the alts have done so since their respective ATH;
the timing of the ATH's indicates there was no alt season. What actually happened was a series of pump and dumps brought on by the ICO craze. The fact that some peaked well before the BTC ATH, and some peaked well after, combined with how quickly they collapsed, indicates there was no "season. By the time ETH was at ATH, XRP was already down 55% from its ATH. By the time BCH was peaking, ETH was already down 67% from its ATH. When XLM and TRX peaked, BCH was already down 34% from its ATH (just 14 days later!). When EOS was hitting its ATH, XLM was down 19% and TRX was down 29%.
Leaving aside LTC and BSV as outliers (too early and too late respectively), "alt season" ran:
May 17, 2017 XRP ATH;
June 12, 2017 ETH ATH;
December 20, 2017 BCH ATH;
January 3, 2018 XLM ATH;
January 4, 2018 TRX ATH;
April 29, 2018 EOS ATH;
My conclusion is that alts will have pump and dumps from time to time, but almost without exception decrease in value relative to Bitcoin. This makes them a very poor indicator for those looking to trade the ratios to acquire more BTC. The pump will come out of nowhere and fade away just as fast. Missed opportunities can quickly turn what would have been a profitable flip into a massive loss. Similarly, the unpredictability of these pumps makes leveraged shorts dangerous as fuck. Very few readers can survive their short going under water by 300 or 400%. There seems to be a lot of long term profit in BTC in shorting these things, but tight stops and willingness to reexamine the market is crucial. If you can catch the right pump and abandon your alt before it dumps, you can increase your BTC stack. The time frame for doing so is small. If you can catch the right pump and short the shit out of it, you could make a ton of BTC. If a coin has a major (200% pump), every pump after that one is less than the previous. Alt season was never really a thing, and is simply a by-product of having thousands of shitcoin ICOs all entering the market at the same time. The timing of the pumps among the coins doesn't even line up well with anything. My theory: alt coins will generally have unpredictable temporary breakouts to historic ATH on the BTC ratio. After the breakout they will continue their gradual slide from ATH to 0BTC. There is no evidence to suggest that the coins that reached significant ATH and withdrew more than 80% will ever see another such pump again. ETH
1,440 day price history (August 7, 2015)
639 days where ETHBTC ratio improved
800 days where ETHBTC ratio decreased
the number of days where ETHBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since August 14, 2015 (8 days after price started being tracked)
median price each day in ETHBTC is 99.63% of the previous day (0.37% decrease per day)
the median daily change in ETHBTC has never been above 100% since August 21, 2015 (15 days after price started being tracked)
current ETHBTC ratio is 212.13% of ETHBTC ratio compared to August 7, 2015 (112.13% gain)
max ETHBTC ratio was 0.150957 on June 12, 2017 (764 days ago)
current ETHBTC ratio is 13.92% of max ETHBTC ratio (86.08% loss)
the number of days where XRPBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since October 14, 2013 (72 days after price started being tracked)
median price each day in XRPBTC is 99.62% of the previous day (0.38% decrease per day)
the median daily change in XRPBTC has never been above 100% since October 17, 2013 (75 days after price started being tracked)
current XRPBTC ratio is 56.0% of XRPBTC ratio compared to August 4, 2013 (44.0% loss)
max XRPBTC ratio was 0.00021431 on May 17, 2017 (764 days ago)
current XRPBTC ratio is 14.61% of max XRPBTC ratio (85.39% loss)
the number of days where BCHBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since August 19, 2017 (28 days after price started being tracked
median price each day in BCHBTC is 99.55% of the previous day (0.44% decrease per day)
the median daily change in BCHBTC has never been above 100% since August 19, 2017 (28 days after price started being tracked)
current BCHBTC ratio is 19.6% of BCHBTC ratio compared to July 23, 2017 (80.4% loss)
max BCHBTC ratio was 0.23597981 on December 20, 2017 (573 days ago)
current BCHBTC ratio is 12.60% of max BCHBTC ratio (87.40% loss)
the number of days where LTCBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since May 1, 2013 (4 days after price started being tracked)
median price each day in LTCBTC is 99.71% of the previous day (0.39% decrease per day)
the median daily change in LTCBTC has never been above 100% since May 2, 2013 (5 days after price started being tracked)
current LTCBTC ratio is 25.9% of LTCBTC ratio compared to April 28, 2013 (74.1% loss)
max LTCBTC ratio was 0.04204661 on November 28, 2013 (2,056 days ago)
current LTCBTC ratio is 19.95% of max LTCBTC ratio (80.05% loss)
the number of days where EOSBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since July 6, 2017 (5 days after price started being tracked)
median price each day in EOSBTC is 99.56% of the previous day (0.44% decrease per day)
the median daily change in EOSBTC has never been above 100% since July 7, 2017 (6 days after price started being tracked)
current EOSBTC ratio is 93.6% of EOSBTC ratio compared to July 2, 2017 (6.4% loss)
max EOSBTC ratio was 0.00228685 on April 29, 2018 (443 days ago)
current EOSBTC ratio is 16.98% of max EOSBTC ratio (83.02% loss)
the number of days where BSVBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since December 10, 2018 (32 days after price started being tracked)
median price each day in BSVBTC is 99.15% of the previous day (0.85% decrease per day)
the median daily change in BSVBTC has never been above 100% since December 10, 2018 (32 days after price started being tracked)
current BSVBTC ratio is 109.1% of BSVBTC ratio compared to November 9, 2018 (9.1% gain)
max BSVBTC ratio was 0.03276992 on November 13, 2018 (245 days ago)
current BSVBTC ratio is 35.85% of max BSVBTC ratio (64.15% loss)
the number of days where XLMBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since September 29, 2014 (56 days after price started being tracked)
median price each day in XLMBTC is 99.47% of the previous day (0.53% decrease per day)
the median daily change in XLMBTC has never been above 100% since September 29, 2014 (56 days after price started being tracked)
current XLMBTC ratio is 198.3% of XLMBTC ratio compared to August 5, 2014 (9.1% gain)
max XLMBTC ratio was 0.00005896 on January 3, 2018 (559 days ago)
current XLMBTC ratio is 14.02% of max XLMBTC ratio (85.98% loss)
the number of days where TRXBTC ratio improved, as a percentage of elapsed days, has not been above 50% since September 20, 2017 (8 days after price started being tracked)
median price each day in TRXBTC is 99.43%of the previous day (0.57% decrease per day)
the median daily change in TRXBTC has never been above 100% since September 20, 2017 (8 days after price started being tracked)
current TRXBTC ratio is 436.9% of TRXBTC ratio compared to September 12, 2017 (336.9% gain)
max TRXBTC ratio was 0.00001333 on January 4, 2018 (558 days ago)
current TRXBTC ratio is 16.78% of max TRXBTC ratio (83.22% loss)
The 3 Kinds of Cryptocurrency Traders that are Kicking Your Ass
The 3 Types of Cryptocurrency Traders that are Kicking Your Ass
For an investor to outperform the market, someone else must underperform.That is a simple arithmetic fact. In a fair and regulated environment, investors have equal access to information. Winners and losers are determined by whoever can make a better prediction. But cryptocurrency is the wild, wild west. Market participants don’t play fair and they can profit at the expense of others. Here are the three types of traders that are kicking your ass Insider Traders Under Rule 10b5–1, the SEC defines insider trading as “any securities transaction made when the person behind the trade is aware of nonpublic material information.” Insider trading is illegal in almost all traditional markets. In a research paper published in 2010, Qin Lei found empirical evidence that insiders were able to consistently beat the stock market. Over the last year, we’ve seen many high-profile cases of insider trading in the cryptocurrency market. Coinbase** — The Bitcoin Cash Incident** On December 19, 2017, Coinbase tweeted it would add Bitcoin Cash to its exchange. But before the announcement was made public, both the trading volume and the price of Bitcoin Cash suspiciously surged. On March 1, Coinbase was hit with a class action lawsuit. The full court document is available here. South Korea Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) Even regulators are being investigated for insider trading. Korean FSS officials knew ahead of time that new cryptocurrency trading restrictions would be put in place. Yet, they still made trades before the announcement. The chief of the FSS, Choi Hyung-sik, confirmed on Jan. 18 that trading violations had occurred. Despite being caught red-handed, another FSS official responded that there was technically “no code of ethics or conduct for virtual currencies and therefore difficult to issue any punishment.” The examples mentioned above are just a few high-profile cases. Insider trading runs rampant in the cryptocurrency space. Very often, prices and trading volumes will pump right before an exchange announces a new coin. To many, insider trading is no longer a surprise but rather something that “just happens” in an unregulated market. Whales A whale is simply a colloquial way to describe an investor who is able to manipulate markets by mobilizing large amounts of capital. Most crypto investors treat whales like the boogeyman. They’ve never had a personal encounter, but swear that whales are responsible for large market swings everywhere. In some cases there is strong evidence indicating that they are right. Recently, academic research has come out showing that large-scale price manipulation does happen. Here’s an example from 2013, where a single entity was largely responsible for pushing the price of Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000 in two months. Another paper that came out last week shows how large amounts of USDT was used to manipulate Bitcoin prices. Here are a few techniques whales use to manipulate price. Stop-loss hunting Whales intentionally push the price down in order to trigger stop-loss orders.Then they turn around and buy coins from these stop-loss orders for cheap and wait for the market to recover. This strategy works well for coins with low trading volumes and small order books. With enough coins, whales can push down the price by introducing a slew of market-price sell orders. To show how this works, let’s imagine a scenario:
There is a coin trading at $150
There are 10 BTC of buy orders between $110 and $150
There are 10 BTC of buy orders between $90 and $110
The goal is to drive the price down past $100, which may be a psychological breaking point for some people and therefore a likely place for stop-losses. One can do this by:
Placing a market sell order totaling 10 BTC, to drive the price down from $150 to $110
Keeping the sell pressure on, as investors naturally start selling their holdings.
Watching people’s stop-losses go off at $100 without their knowledge. This drives the price down further.
Buying up all the stop-loss orders at $90 and under.
Waiting for the market to recover before selling the coins.
Short/Long Hunting This is another form of market manipulation, but one that only exchanges can pull off. Let’s see how this works on Bitmex for BTC.
A trader puts up $100 as margin for a 100x leveraged long position of $10,000.
The bankruptcy price is set at $9,900 which is the market price minus the margin.
However, Bitmex forces a liquidation if the price falls to $9,950, just $50 (0.5%) from the initial entry price.
When the market price reaches the liquidation price, Bitmex forces a sell at the bankruptcy price ($9,900).
At liquidation, investors lose their entire margin and pay the high fee at the 100x leveraged rate.
The price just has move slightly in the wrong direction to trigger a liquidation. When liquidations happen, the investor loses their entire margin and pays a big fat fee. Because exchanges know exactly what prices will trigger these liquidations, they have both the capability and financial incentive to engineer price movements using bots. To be clear, there is no evidence implicating Bitmex. But it is suspicious that low volume trading periods are followed by a furious uptick in volume. When this happens, liquidation tears through leveraged positions, leaving traders with nothing other than a fistful of trading fees. BitmexRekt tweets these liquidations in real time. You can follow them here. Spoofing Another common strategy whales use to manipulate the market is called spoofing. It means to bid or offer with intent to cancel before the orders are filled.The goal of spoofing is to send false signals to investors. Here’s an example of using this strategy to profit:
A spoofer places a large buy order right underneath a smaller buy order with the intention of sending a bullish signal to the market.
After filling a few trades, poof, the spoofer cancels the entire buy order.
When the price starts to rise, the spoofer starts to sell his coins.
This also works in the opposite direction. By placing large sell orders, spoofers can send bearish signals and lure investors into selling their cryptocurrencies at a discount. Bitfinex’d investigates an entity known as “Spoofy” operating on the Bitfinex exchange. Wash Trading The last strategy we’ll cover is wash trading. In a wash trade, an investor takes both buy and sell positions. This may be done in order to:
Manipulate prices on markets with small order books
Usually wash trading is extremely hard to prove, as washed trades look very similar to real trades. On July 27, however, Bitfinex unknowingly baited wash traders during the Bitcoin (BTC) fork to Bitcoin Cash (BCH). At the time of the fork, all BTC holders were to receive BCH commensurate with the amount of BTC they held. To accommodate for BTC held in margin positions at the time, Bitfinex had to finesse the numbers. To quote the announcement:
BCH will be distributed to settled bitcoin wallet balances as of the UTC timestamp of the first forking block, which is expected to occur on August 1st, 2017. The token distribution methodology will be:
All BTC wallet balances will receive BCH
Margin longs in BTC/USD and margin shorts in XXX/BTC will not receive BCH
Margin shorts in BTC/USD and margin longs in XXX/BTC will not pay BCH
BTC Lenders will receive BCH
Due to the net amount of BTC committed in margin positions at the time of the fork, the above methodology may result in Bitfinex seeing a surplus or deficit of BCH. As such, we will be resolving this discrepancy in the form of a socialized distribution coefficient. For example, currently, there are more longs than shorts on the platform, causing a distribution coefficient of ~1.091 (Meaning that for each qualifying BTC a user will receive 1.091 BCH). The actual coefficient will be calculated at the moment of the distribution.
These rules turned out to be game-able. Because Bitfinex did not charge BCH to open short positions leading up to the split, one could simply purchase 10 BTC and short 10 BTC. This way, you could collect free BCH without any exposure to BTC price volatility. If BTC drops, the shorts cancel out any loss. If BTC soars, the profits cancel out the short positions. On July 27, there were more longs than shorts on the platform and the distribution coefficient was 1.091. However, on August 1, the distribution coefficient moved to 0.7757. Leading up to the fork, an enormous amount of short positions were created. And instead of prices going down, which is what usually happens when shorts increase so dramatically, prices actually went up. To make matters even more dubious, shorts dropped by 24,000 on a single tick right after the fork. The manipulation here was so obvious that even Bitfinex had to acknowledge it. They issued an official statement about the wash trading here. Pump & Dump Group Executives So we’ve talked about insider traders and whales. The final type of traders we’re going to talk about are the pump & dump group executives. Pump & dump (P&D) is a form of market manipulation that involves purchasing a cheap asset, artificially inflating its price, and then dumping the asset a higher price. The cryptocurrency market is rife with such groups. Here are just a few:
Big Pump Signal (82,184 members)
VIP Signal Strategy (24,138 members)
PumpKing Community (11,124 members)
Crypto4Pumps (13,954 members)
AltTheWay (8,350 members)
Here’s howPump & Dumps work
P&D executives find a coin that is easy to manipulate and easy to sell. I.e. A coin with a strong community, advertising potential, small order book, and low trading volume.
Executives secretly accumulate the coin over time while trying not to affect the price.
These executives spread their pump signals to their inner circle members who pay upwards of $300 for the privilege of hearing early signals.
The first wave of pumpers start shilling on signal groups. They tell gullible investors that a pump is about to happen because of “new website updates”, or “new partnership announcements”, generally whatever angle they can spin.
As the price rises, the P&D executives start dumping their coins.
Once the executives are spent, they spread the signal to their paid members to begin dumping the coin.
The price starts falling and like a game of soggy cookie, the slowest players lose.
Cryptomedication wrote a great piece exposing BravadoGroup and several large influencers in the crypto space planning large scale P&Ds. The reason I single out P&D executives is because they are the only ones that consistently profit. They have the most control and the highest amount of influence.So much so that members are willing to pay $300 for the privilege of being used as pawns. The buyers in signal groups are even worse off. They are falsely led into buying into a promising, undervalued coin, without any knowledge that it will soon be dumped.
So you’re telling me the game is rigged and I’m boned, what should I do?
The simple answer is to stop actively trading.The more you try to time the market, the more you open yourself up to opportunities of getting screwed over. Speculative trading is a zero-sum game. In order for investors to outperform the market, they require others to underperform the market. In an unfair market, the average investor will more likely lose to people who have an unfair advantage and are gaming the market. This is why I genuinely believe the average investor should just index the entire market. If you’re in it for the technology and the long-term growth, why bother speculating at all? Just hold a small piece of the entire cryptocurrency market. Indices has been proven to beat 95% professional traders in equity markets over a 15 year-period. This is why I built HodlBot. It’s an easy way to diversify across the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap. It indexes 87% of the entire cryptocurrency market. Every week, your portfolio automatically rebalance so you’re always tracking the top 20 coins. It helps you get some quiet sleep while active traders lie awake, staring at their phones. You can read more about it here. The best thing about a total market index is that it can guarantee market performance. Active trading, on the other hand, cannot. I don’t mean to spread FUD by pointing out all the different ways traders are ripping investors off. I just want investors to know what exactly free and unregulated markets really mean. We’re not protected by the SEC or any other sanctioning bodies. While this comes with unbridled freedom and breathing room for rapid innovation, it also means all foul play is fair play. It’s a brave new world out there filled with all kinds of splendor and danger. If you’re going to take your chances, please make sure you’re prepared.
bullish on USD. it is clear USD is increasingly popular with past hodlers of the deprecated bit-Coin. USD has gone up hugely in just the past day against the b.t.C!! in the future it is posible with enough imagination that the US economy could run on USD ! in conclusion you should get into currency (186 points, 26 comments)
Ladies and Gentlemen I have an innovative idea that will change the landscape of cryptospace forever. I present you the infinite reverse Ponzi scheme. (355 points, 237 comments)
TIL bitcoin is called the currency of the future because all currency transactions are confirmed in the distant future. by Thief_1 (720 points, 37 comments)
1874 points: AlbertRammstein's comment in The OKEx margin trading disaster — how crypto margin trading goes wrong, and how the eye-watering margin leverage on crypto exchanges works in practice
1263 points: Mike_Prowe's comment in Buttcoin Foundation ROCKED as founder exposed to be PAID SHILL for Butterfly Labs
820 points: Slayer706's comment in Buttcoin Foundation ROCKED as founder exposed to be PAID SHILL for Butterfly Labs
577 points: deleted's comment in The OKEx margin trading disaster — how crypto margin trading goes wrong, and how the eye-watering margin leverage on crypto exchanges works in practice
571 points: cloud3514's comment in And the returns have already begun. One person and a known reseller we get regularly.
496 points: SnapshillBot's comment in a shitcoin startup called Prodeum just exitscammed with millions of investor dollars and left them the following message on their site
382 points: vytah's comment in Holy Satoshi! Butter pays 85Btc transaction fees for a 16Btc transaction. Is this the largest fee ever paid?
380 points: Tomatoshi's comment in It's already happening. GPU market is about to get really hot.
361 points: ShiteFlaps's comment in Why are you guys such salty fks?
331 points: -charlie-kelly-'s comment in a shitcoin startup called Prodeum just exitscammed with millions of investor dollars and left them the following message on their site
Ant Financial - the company behind the $60 billion financial network Alipay, used by 450 million users in China is experimenting with Ethereum to improve their global payment platforms. (455 points, 41 comments)
Joe Lubin: " The whole point of the Ethereum project, is not to dominate the world - but to enable the planet to better organise itself " (148 points, 5 comments)
A hard fork is the best thing for the Ethereum network; credibility and ideology is bullshit. Ethereum simply has to execute programs, the rest comes later. (232 points, 326 comments)
"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people." can we please stop this culture of bashing or lifting cults of personality and get back to science? (807 points, 143 comments)
Coinbase, please fix your merchant invoices on iOS 10. They haven't worked properly for months (while BitPay's work perfectly). Details and screenshot inside. (35 points, 5 comments)
Just paid 23 cents on a $3.74 transaction. When does it end? $1.00 per transaction? $2? $5? I don't wanna stop using this peer to peer currency, but I'm fast being priced out of it. (896 points, 1017 comments)
It's time to start thinking about denominating Bitcoins in mBTC permanently. Might be the last time to buy some for less than a dollar each! (82 points, 127 comments)
380 points: Tyatku's comment in When you ride the bitcoin rally
340 points: Vaultoro's comment in Just paid 23 cents on a $3.74 transaction. When does it end? $1.00 per transaction? $2? $5? I don't wanna stop using this peer to peer currency, but I'm fast being priced out of it.
323 points: jamesdpitley's comment in "R.I.P. Bitcoin. It's Time to Move On"....funny billboard driving around in Miami
290 points: Clutch70's comment in Clearly not mainstream yet
212 points: BitcoinDreamland's comment in South Florida Distillers uses heat from bitcoin mining to accelerate rum barrel aging!
Trading 212 is a broker for trading Forex and CFDs and is part of Avus Capital Ltd., which is headquartered in London and is supervised and regulated by the British Financial Services Authority FCA. Trading 212 trades over 400 securities, including currencies, CFDs on cryptocurrencies and CFDs on stock indices and futures, using either its […] degiro vs trading212 who is better? Compare broker reputations, markets and intruments offered, fees, trading platforms, customer support levels, languages supported and more. A must read for any serious trader. Who is better for trading Forex, Bitcoin, Majors, Indices, US Stocks, UK Stocks, Penny stocks, Energies, Metals, Agriculturals, FTSE, Dow Jones, Dax, Nikkei, ETFs, IPO? Trading 212 Leverage explained by professional forex trading experts, All you need to know about Trading212 leverage, For more information about Trading 212 Maximum Leverage you can also visit Trading 212 review by ForexSQ.com forex trading website, The TopForexBrokers.com ratings forex brokers, or Fxstay.com currency trading investing company and get all information you need to know about the YES - FCA - UK, CYSEC - Cyprus, FSC - Bulgaria. Trading 212 is a trading name of Avus Capital UK Ltd., Avus Capital CY Ltd. and Avus Capital Ltd. [Avus Capital UK Ltd. is registered in England and Wales (Register number 8590005). Avus Capital UK Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Register number 609146)]. Trading 212 Bitcoin review by professional forex trading experts, All you need to know about Trading212 Bitcoin Trading chart, For more information about Bitcoin trading or Trading 212 Bitcoin Broker you can also visit Trading 212 review by ForexSQ.com Bitcoin trading website, The TopForexBrokers.com ratings BTC brokers, or Fxstay.com currency trading investing company and get all information
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