In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), now that my short term thesis of a 274-292 channel has now been invalidated because of some vaccine company fraudulently telling everyone they've cured COVID-19 to pump their stock before a secondary offering, I'll be digging deeper into my longer term thesis that I've been talked about for weeks now. I've previously wrote about this thesis from a perspective of economic history and the perspective of liquidity and finance. This time, lets look at it from a perspective of human and American history, and cycles that can be in them.submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
EDIT - This DD is meant to be read as a last part of a trilogy from these two previous posts with the actual data and quantitative content. Without that context, this post will basically seem like trying to use obscure theories to magically predict the future because of some prophecy. This is meant to be a theoretical / qualitative explanation of the of what was talked about in those previous posts, as well as connecting them to actions and thesises of well-known investors like Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett, who are saying very similar things. Don't bother reading this if you haven't read the first two parts of this trilogy.
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. This time, let’s take a broader look at cycles and patterns that often present itself throughout human history, and connect that to the economy and the stock market. Much of the content for this piece is taken from the Strauss–Howe generational theory, Ray Dalio’s thesis about our place in the long-term debt cycle, and Warren Buffet’s take on the same topic when he spent a few hours talking about it in the most recent Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.
The Fourth Turning
The general idea of Strauss–Howe generational theory, or the “fourth turning” is that American history tends to repeat certain trends within every “saeculum”, or human lifespan - approximately 80 years. This is how long it typically takes for the certain historical events to start disappearing from human memory, allowing similar events to happen again. I’m not entirely sure why this theory focuses on American history specifically, and can be applied to human histories across civilizations, although until recently those cycles may not have been synchronized with each other. The theory states that history tend to occur in cycles of four “turnings”:
High - A “golden age” of a civilization. This is when there is strong unity within members of the society, with strong confidence in institutions like the government and big corporations, and weak individualism. As a collective mind, the civilization is able to work together to achieve big goals.
Awakening - People get tired of conformity, trust in institutions weaken, and there’s a strong desire for self awareness, spirituality, or authenticity. This is a time of experimentation, activism, and rebellion.
Unraveling - Confidence in institutions such as governments and large corporations are at its weakest, and individualism is at its strongest. Society fragments to polarizing groups, and public action by governments is barely able to achieve the smallest goals.
Crisis - This is when the fabric of society and existing institutions are destroyed in response to a perceived existential threat to the civilization itself. Economic distress is rampant as the economy sees defaulting sovereign debt, high unemployment, deflation or hyperinflation, or civil unrest. The crisis eventually becomes a unifying force for the previously fractured society, and the civilization comes together to solve the crisis. Civil authority and governments become trusted again, and self-sacrifices inspire people to work together as a society over self interest.
Let’s look at how this cycle played out over the past few centuries in the US.
The Changing Hands of World Powers
There’s also another interesting theory in the field of international relations that’s interesting and probably applicable here - the Long Cycle Theory. It basically states that international world orders and the title of the most powerful nation, is challenged every 70 to 100 years - the approximate maximum lifespan of an average human life, leading to some sort of global conflict and potentially a change in the world order as a result.
Cycles in World Leadership
The United States has survived as the World Leader for the 20th century from the threat of the Soviet Union challenging the world order. This time, it’s becoming increasingly clear that China has become a new challenger to the American world order.
Long Term Economic Cycles
Ray Dalio is famous for this being a central part of his economic thesis - about long term debt cycles, and the fact that we’re near the end of one. The summary of this idea is that the economy goes through short term and long term debt cycles. Short term debt cycles are the regular occurring business cycles you usually see once every decade, usually caused by overspending. The long term debt cycle, however, is when an entire economy becomes overleveraged, and it becomes harder and harder for a central bank to stimulate the economy. A hallmark of this happening is when interest rates hit near 0%, and they are forced to perform quantitative easing to stimulate the economy; the last time the economy’s seen anything similar to this was the Great Depression - this is called a liquidity trap. The period following this liquidity trap was an economic deleveraging, typically associated with civil unrest, revolutions, wars, and asset prices plummeting. The US economy has been seeing this since 2008 and has never been able to successfully fully deleverage the economy yet.
Another long term economic cycle theory that’s somewhat popular is the Kondratiev wave, although this field of economics is not generally accepted by most economists. The idea is that the economy goes through long-term economic cycles, lasting between 45 to 60 years, of periods of rapid economic and stock market growth fueled by technological innovations, followed by a period of stagnation.
Currently, we’re late in the wave created by the introduction of Information Technology, which started in the late 1970s. I’ve previously talked about this, but basically we’re near the end of this cycle as well.
So, it sounds like we’re near the end of many cycles; the generational cycle of the Strauss–Howe generational theory, the long term debt cycle, the Kondratiev Wave cycle, and possibly the beginning of the end of the Long Cycle in international relations as China begins to contend with the United States for global influence. In all of these cycles, the conclusion is clear - chaos, economic hardship, geopolitical tensions and crises. Let’s take a closer look at the stock market last time all of these cycles ended - the 1930s.
Retail Investors in the 1920s
There’s not that much solid quantitative data about retail investors and their impact on the stock market; only qualitative and anecdotal data. However, one thing is clear - retail investors pumped the market in 1929 beyond what fundamentals warranted, despite evidence of a weakening economy due to stagnating consumer spending and distress by farmers due to overproduction of wheat, and soon, the Dust Bowl. Why were they pumping stocks so much? Because they falsely believed that stocks only go up. I’ll put some excerpts from this Forbes and this Investopedia article I found talking about this to better illustrate the extent and nature of this pump.
Still there was one big anomaly in the decade preceding, the 1920s, and it remains instructive today. The American people bought stocks in unprecedented fashion. Stocks on the installment plan, stocks via investment clubs, stocks bought with capital rather than income, stocks on margin. It was a big new fad. Nothing like the participation in the market that the nation experienced in the 1920s can be found in previous eras of history.
The permanent denuding of the dollar, the reality of which first became clear in the 1920s, forced savers to find some instrument that would pay them back in the old way, in money that held its value. The choice was made to capture, via stocks, the forthcoming profits of businesses. Here would be money commensurate to what was needed to buy things in the future.
Until the peak in 1929, stock prices went up by nearly 10 times. In the 1920s, investing in the stock market became somewhat of a national pastime for those who could afford it and even those who could not—the latter borrowed from stockbrokers to finance their investments.
People were not buying stocks on fundamentals; they were buying in anticipation of rising share prices. Rising share prices simply brought more people into the markets, convinced that it was easy money. In mid-1929, the economy stumbled due to excess production in many industries, creating an oversupply. Essentially, companies were able to acquire money cheaply due to high share prices and invest in their own production with the requisite optimism.
This all sounds pretty familiar to what's going on in the stock market today; as I previously mentioned, retail investors are pouring money in at unprecedented levels. Why is this happening now, about 90 years since the last time every retail investor started pouring money in? It's the same as the reasoning behind most of the other cycles I've mentioned above - the vast majority of people who previously experienced this and would have been alive to remember the 1920s have passed away by now. With an absence of people alive to have this mistake in living memory, humanity is bound to repeat the same mistakes, ignoring the warnings from our ancestors who are no longer with us, and repeat the cycle.
There's one pair of billionaires who are old enough to remember the aftermath of the the stock market pump that led towards the 1929 crash - Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Warren would have been born right after the crash and Charlie would have been 5. Both of them entered the finance industry while the stock market was still recovering from it, and still below the 1929 highs. For anyone who watched him talk at the annual shareholder meeting, he spent a few hours talking about a similar story - one of the highs and lows of American history, with a bullish perspective. He wouldn't have spent hours talking about the 1929 crash and the fact that it took multiple decades to recover if this wasn't relevant. This is supported by the fact that he bought virtually nothing since the crash, and has been gradually selling a large portion of this publicly traded equities - first his airlines and now banks. Although he believes that we'll eventually recover (i.e. "Never bet against American", in the long run), it's clear from his actions that he sees parallels of this from the stock market he grew up in the shadow of in his childhood and doesn't want to bet for America in the short term.
EDIT - Someone pointed out this article by Ray Dalio: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio/ which basically talks about something very similar. I actually didn't even know about the existence of this article and actually wrote this before this got published, but looks like we both came to the same conclusion, and this is a shorter version of Ray Dalio's article. Recommend everyone check this out if they want a more in-depth version of this DD with more data and this this post as a tldr of it.
Weekly SPY Watch Updates
This section has absolutely nothing to do with anything I talked about above, but people apparently care about trades I'm making and what my magic markers say will happen in the stock market this week, so I'll have this section of this post dedicated to that and my updates.
I've since sold, with the exception of some VIX calls, all my short positions on SPY, and currently doing some individual plays - currently holding GSX puts and short (sold) HTZ calls, among some other smaller plays. With respect to SPY, it looks like we'll be in a new channel - this time 293-300; not sure how long we'll be staying in this channel for, but I'll be playing it by either selling short-dated iron condors or buying calls / puts when it reaches one end of the channel. While magic markers are telling me we're going to be bullish medium term, and go through 300 to new ATHs, meaning I should buy calls, I don't want to go against my own fundamentals in principle by the fact that the stock market is clearly already overvalued.
5/25 3PM - /ES at 299, might open near the top of the channel. Will need to see how we open to decide if I'm going to enter a position on SPY again.
5/25 10PM - Looks we're going to be trading on the upper half the of channel on Tuesday, with a trading range of 300-297. Might look to pick up some short-dated puts to play the channel if technicals look right on open.
5/26 Noon - Got a small amount of 5/29 ATM puts to play the channel. We opened right above the 200MA so I'm relying on this being a fake out, and not very confident about this specific play.
5/26 3:50PM - Looks like 300-302 range is acting like a resistance, heading back down in the 293-300 channel. Bearish intraday (5M, 15M) MACD => EOD dump and open lower in the channel tomorrow. Looking closely at what's going on with China.
- Wednesday (tomorrow): House votes on sanctions related to Chinese concentration camps of Uyghurs
- Thursday: China votes, and very likely passes, amendment to Basic Law in HK for "national security"
- End of Week: Trump promised that he will have a policy response, likely sanctions, for the change in HK's basic law, in addition to possibly revoking HK's special status
5/27 Market Open - Opened at the top of the resistance again, but quickly reversing. Might play out similar to yesterday
5/27 11AM - Going to wait till SPY hits 297 again and then roll my 5/29 puts I got yesterday to continue playing the channel down to 293
5/27 3:50PM - Turns out it was a EOD pump instead of dump. Oversold on 5M and 15M, so probably need to consolidate again tomorrow with a trading range of 297-302 again. Not so sure about this one because there's a solid chance this just breaks through that resistance and goes towards new ATHs. Entered into more 5/29 puts and going to hold overnight, sell if we still have positive momentum going in to open tomorrow. If we don't break 300 again tomorrow, I'm going to assume we're going to new ATHs and buy some IWM calls, hedged with QQQ puts.
5/27 6:30PM - My plan for tomorrow - see if we're actually in a 293-302 channel. There's going to be alot of uncertainty coming from China this week. If we're still above 302 by 10AM I'll probably transition towards bull positions. Most tech / strong companies are priced near their ATHs, and all the momentum coming into SPY is now coming from all the stocks that were really hit the past few months. Looking at CCL, JPM, and BA, all of whom are going towards a 1W MACD crossover
5/27 11PM - Still above this channel. Again, if we open above 302 and don't quickly reverse then clearly 300 wasn't that much of a resistance and we're headed to ATHs - next stop is 313, followed by 340. To my bears out there - the 1W MACD has already crossed over, meaning we're not going to see a rug pull any time soon, with the exception of some dramatic event happening in China. I'm not taking any medium-term bearish positions and currently just trying to play this channel, although the bullish momentum is stronger than I expected and not consolidating that much on 300 (yet). Watch out for August - that's when most medical experts agree a second lockdown is going to become evident and this bubble will pop; I still stand by my long term thesis. However, in the short term, don't trade against the trend and profit off the bubble.
5/28 9:40AM - I was wrong again. Going to sell those puts when SPY hits 302 at a small loss. We're headed to ATH
5/28 11:40AM - Overbought on 15M and 1H RSI, should see more consolidation today, and hopefully hit my 302 target to sell later today.
5/28 1PM - Stopped out of my small SPY puts, rolled that out into bullish positions on JPM, BA, and CCL. Will probably be doing SPY plays for a while, since all the technicals are pointing to a bullish rally, but only way for that to continue is for beaten down stocks like the ones mentioned, and found in IWM, to skyrocket the next few weeks. Also probably going to stop updating this thread as much.
5/28 5PM - 1H MACD is about to cross, and SPY got near 302 today, We've clearly broken the previous resistance area of 300-302, alot earlier than I was expecting; today was just a day for consolidation because RSI was overbought, now it has room to grow. MACD also acts as a resistance and typically will bounce back instead of cross if there's still bullish sentiment. I believe this is the case now, and we will also see SPY bounce up from the previous 300-302 region of resistance with it becoming support; the next level of resistance will be 313 on SPY, which is where we'll be headed soon. Haven't been holding any medium-term short positions, and am currently net long on financials and transports, which will very likely rally disproportionally if SPY continues to go up. Very well aware that this is a bubble, but I called the top wrong and trading against the trend will just lose you money.
5/28 7PM - Tomorrow will be an interesting day, Trump announced a news conference, with an unspecified time, where he will talk about actions he will do to China, potentially sanctions. There was a very small dip in the market on this news but nothing much else has happened yet. Depending on what the actions are, could be a red day tomorrow and break 302. I'll play this out intraday if we don't open low tomorrow
5/29 11AM - SPY is re-testing the 300-302 area, this time as support. Everything really depends on whatever Trump announces today regarding retaliation about China. Hard to say what can happen. If it's something extreme, like sanctions or tariffs, this could lead to another crash. Anything else would mean this SPY immediately bounces back from this support area.
5/29 1PM - Trump conference scheduled at 2PM. Will watch stock market reaction and trade with sentiment from it. If retaliation is bad enough to drop below 300, could be the rug pull all the bears have been waiting for.
5/29 2PM - Picked up some 302-300 debit spreads coming into the news conference, planning on holding this for an hour and selling by EOD
5/29 3PM - Sold puts during the speech and flipped to 304-310 calls. Looks like this wasn't enough to break through support. Going to hold these overnight, momentum looks to be turning bullish now that there's no longer any uncertainty about China, and actions are unlikely to provoke a Chinese retaliation.
5/29 4PM - Sold my short-dated calls. Coming into the weekend, it looks like next week will continue to be bullish, with 1D MACD convergence continuing, as well as the lack of any resistance until 313.
Week of Jun 1 - Jun 5 - Looking at SPY hitting 213 by end of week
• Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana. • Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch. • Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences. • Violent crime has fallen every year heâ€™s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected. • Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal. • Trumpâ€™s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan. • Under Trumpâ€™s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the worldâ€™s largest producer of crude oil. • Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information. • Trump signed the â€œAllow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Actâ€ (FOSTA), which includes the â€œStop Enabling Sex Traffickers Actâ€ (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking. • Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms. • The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers. • Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay. • Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land. • Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean. • He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down. • Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies. • When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance. • Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept. • In the eight years prior to President Trumpâ€™s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month. • He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans. • VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far. • Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life. • Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% â€” the largest raise in more than 10 years. • Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers. • Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years. • All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays. • Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price. • President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans. • In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society. • The First Step Actâ€™s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes. • The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes. • Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans. • The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime. • Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%. • Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs. • New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago. • Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs. • Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments. • The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment. • Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data. • President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund. • Trumpâ€™s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure. • Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all time high. • More than 7 million jobs created since election. • More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history. • More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election. • Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors. • Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe. • Through Trumpâ€™s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts. • In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internetâ€™s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking. • Trumpâ€™s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking. • Trumpâ€™s Immigration and Customs Enforcementâ€™s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking. • Trumpâ€™s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need. • The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases. • Trumpâ€™s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims â€“ serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018. • The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support. • President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code. • The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million. • The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education. • Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled. • ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed. • Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs. • Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers. • Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith. • Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism. • President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions. • Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens. • Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea. • Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe. • Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal. • Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam. • Okayâ€™d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation. • Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed. • Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades. • Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border. • The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment. • Trumpâ€™s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new â€œReady to Work Initiativeâ€ to help connect employers directly with former prisoners. • President Trumpâ€™s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country. • 8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones. • Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country. • Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core. • Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law. • Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide. • Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed. • Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years. • Stock Market has reached record highs. • Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded. • African-American unemployment is at an all time low. • Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all time low. • Asian-American unemployment is at an all time low. • Womenâ€™s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low. • Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low. • We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded. • The Pledge to Americaâ€™s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans. • 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the futureâ€” the highest ever. • As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years. • Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses. • Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who donâ€™t have children to work or look for work if theyâ€™re on welfare. • Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history. • Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugsâ€”saving seniors 100â€™s of millions of $$$ this year alone. • Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasnâ€™t allowed before. • Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic. • Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care. • U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East. • The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957. • NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign. • Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions. • Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration. • Had his Supreme Court Justiceâ€™s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed. • Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. • Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in. • Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports. • Imposed tariffs on China in response to Chinaâ€™s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China. • Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline. • Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments. • The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it. • It also created a new tax credit for other dependents. • In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families. • The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care. • In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families. • In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER. • Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once itâ€™s thelaw, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone. • US stock market continually hits all-time record highs. • Trump did all of this while fighting flagrant abuse and impeachment charges.
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